By Steve Schwartz
Dallas and Chicago face off Thursday night with identical 6-6 records. However, while the Cowboys lead their division, the Bears are three games behind the Packers and realistically a long shot for any NFC playoff spot down two games to division rival Minnesota.
The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).
Our overall record is 24-15, including 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last six weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Odds from ParxCasino.com
1) Mitchell Trubisky, under 22.5 completions, -128.
On a cold night, against a Dallas defense that has allowed fewer than 20 completions in three consecutive games, it’s not likely to be a wild shootout. Throw in the loss of wideout Taylor Gabriel (concussion) and the odds become even more favorable for the under. The SIS data says Trubisky produces 20.8 completions and a fair number should be -191.
2) Anthony Miller, over 4.5 receptions, +102.
Miller has seen 33 targets and caught 21 of them over the last three games. Each game he caught at least six balls. He had made himself the clear cut No. 2 option behind Allen Robinson even before Gabriel went down. SIS analysis shows he should see at least eight targets and catch at five balls which puts fair market value at -168, but the line is +102. Take it.
3) Amari Cooper, under 5.5 receptions, -143.
Cooper is still dealing with knee issues, but it’s not bad enough to keep him sidelined. He was solid against Buffalo on Thanksgiving, but did miss time late when the injury acted up. Against the low-scoring Bears the Cowboys don’t figure to be down by 19 points as they were to the Bills, so he likely won’t see double-digit targets again. The emergence of Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup and the steady targets for veterans Jason Witten and Ezekiel Elliott will limit Cooper’s upside. SIS data shows just 6.9 targets and 4.6 completions for a fair price of -218, but we are only paying -143.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Dak Prescott, 1.5, over -125/under 100
Mitchell Trubisky, 1.5, over +115/under -143
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Quarterback Interceptions
Dak Prescott, 0.5, over -182/under +145
Mitchell Trubisky, 0.5, over -200/under +160
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Quarterback Completions
Dak Prescott, 23.5 completions, over -108/under -118
Mitchell Trubisky, 22.5 completions, over +100/under -128
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Touchdown Scorers
Dallas:
Ezekiel Elliott -155
Amari Cooper +160
Michael Gallup +250
Dak Prescott +260
Randall Cobb +325
Jason Witten +325
Tony Pollard +550
Blake Jarwin +750
Tavon Austin +850
Chicago:
David Montgomery +105
Allen Robinson +180
Tarik Cohen +200
Anthony Miller +240
Javon Wims +450
Jesper Horsted +700
Cordarrelle Patterson +700
Mitchell Trubisky +700
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Total Receptions
Dallas:
Ezekiel Elliott, 3.5, over 110/under -134
Randall Cobb, 3.5, over -134/under 110
Amari Cooper, 5.5, over 120/under -143
Michael Gallup, 3.5, over -167/under 135
Jason Witten, 3.5, over 100/under -125
Chicago:
Allen Robinson 5.5, over -108/under -118
Anthony Miller 4.5, over +102/under -130
Tarik Cohen, 3.5, over -126/under -102
