BY STEVE SCHWARZ
If not for prop bets and fantasy football, would we actually watch this game?
Just kidding: It’s not that bad.
The Panthers have won two straight to start the season including a demolition of the Saints and the Texans beat up on a bad Jacksonville team before losing last week to a good Browns team. We don’t see any props we like among the quarterbacks but have a few other ones that we like.
Full disclosure: Our picks are 2-7 to start the season after an 0-3 week last week.
Here are Thursday’s selections using odds provided by DraftKings in an effort to turn that around.
You can use SISBets.com to get your own projections – registered users can try 10 free queries.
1) Anthony Miller, 2.5 receptions, under -150
Miller hasn’t played yet this season, being a healthy scratch after missing most of the preseason due to a dislocated shoulder. Even if he’s active, he likely hasn’t practiced with the new starting quarterback Davis Mills.
While he’s been absent, Brandin Cooks established himself as the No. 1 option with 21 targets with Danny Amendola, Pharaoh Brown and RB David Johnson getting six targets each.
Given his “rust” and playing for a new team after three season with the Bears, we can’t see him getting three receptions.
In fact, the SIS calculations show that the under should be a -312 favorite and DraftKings shows it at only -150.
2) Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5 receptions, over -135
Marshall is just a rookie (LSU) and the No. 3 receiver behind Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but he’s been solidly involved in the Panthers passing game. He’s caught three balls in each game and got six targets in their only competitive game, the Week 1 19-14 win over the Jets.
He’s getting plenty of playing time, getting 52% of their 140 snaps over the two games. Based on the SIS data, Marshall should be a -194 favorite, but DraftKings is setting the number at -135.
3) Jordan Akins, 1.5 receptions, under +115
Akins has been a solid contributor in the past with 36-418-2 in 2019 and 37-403-1 in 2020, but this season he’s gotten just four targets, with one reception in two games, and isn’t starting.
Admittedly he’s gotten plenty of snaps (85-of-139). But given that he’s not been a priority target, the SIS data has him as -196 for the under and you are being offered +115. That’s one to take.
SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Its data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Passing Yards
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Sam Darnold, over 265.5, -115/under -115
Davis Mills, over 211.5 -115/under -115
Quarterback Passing TDs
———————————–
Sam Darnold, over 1.5, TDs, -160/under +120
Davis Mills, over 1.5 TDs, +180/under -250
Quarterback Interceptions
———————————-
Sam Darnold, over 0.5, INTs, +110/under -150
Davis Mills, over 0.5 INTs, -205/under +155
Quarterback Completions
———————————-
Sam Darnold, over 23.5, completions, +100/under -130
Davis Mills, over 18.5 completions, -120/under -110
Touchdown Scorers
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Carolina –
Christian McCaffrey, -250
DJ Moore, +110
Robby Anderson, +175
Terrace Marshall Jr., +275
Sam Darnold, +310
Chuba Hubbard, +400
Dan Arnold, +400
Brandon Zylstra, +550
Ian Thomas, +800
Royce Freeman, +900
Houston –
Brandin Cooks, +200
Mark Ingram, +225
Phillip Lindsay, +250
Chris Conley, +300
David Johnson, +300
Anthony Miller, +400
Andre Roberts, +450
Jordan Akins, +500
Pharaoh Brown, +500
Davis Mills, +650
Rushing Yards
——————-
Carolina –
Christian McCaffrey, 82.5, over -115/under -115
Sam Darnold, 6.5, over -115/under -115
Houston –
David Johnson, 67.5, over -115/under -115
Mark Ingram, 36.5, over -115/under -115
Phillip Lindsay, 21.5, over -115/under -115
Receiving Yards
———————
Carolina –
Christian McCaffrey, 49.5, over -115/under -115
DJ Moore, 67.5, over -115/under -115
Robby Anderson, 43.5, over -115/under -115
Terrace Marshall Jr., 28.5, over -115/under -115
Dan Arnold, 23.5, over -115/under -115
Houston –
Brandin Cooks, 68.5, over -115/under -115
Mark Ingram, 3.5, over -110/under -120
Phillip Lindsay, 2.5, over -110/under -120
Chris Conley, 26.5, over -115/under -115
David Johnson, 17.5, over -110/under -120
Anthony Miller, 25.5, over -115/under -115
Jordan Akins, 16.5, over -115/under -115
Pharaoh Brown, 18.5, over -110/under -120
Receptions
————–
Carolina –
Christian McCaffrey, 5.5, over +105/under -140
DJ Moore, 5.5, over +110/under -145
Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -150/under +115
Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5, over -135/under +100
Dan Arnold, 2.5, over +140/under -190
Houston –
Brandin Cooks, 5.5, over -115/under -115
Chris Conley, 2.5, over +100/under -135
David Johnson, 2.5, over +105/under -140
Anthony Miller, 2.5, over +110/under -150
Jordan Akins, 1.5, over -150/under +115
Pharaoh Brown, 1.5, over -180/under +135
