by STEVEN SCHWARZ
Three prop bet options for Thursday Night Football that rate favorably per SISBets.com
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
1) Russell Wilson, under 24.5 completions, -125.
This is the best prop bet on the board tonight. Wilson is averaging just 27.3 passing attempts per game, so the likelihood that he will complete 25 of them is minimal. Through four games he has yet to complete more than 23.
The SIS data predicts Wilson will throw 30 times and complete just 20 for 223 yards.
Based on this information, the actual odds for under 24.5 completions should be -475, but at DraftKings the number is set at -125. The math clearly favors this one.
2) Cooper Kupp, over 6.5 receptions, -145.
Through four games Kupp has been the hottest receiver in the league, producing 431 yards and five touchdowns on 42 targets and 30 receptions. He’s gotten double-digit targets in every game and only once has Kupp caught fewer than seven balls.
The Seahawks’ pass defense hasn’t been very good, yielding the seventh-most completions, fifth-most yards and eighth-most touchdown passes. Kupp and Stafford should be a potent weapon.
Our analysis predicts Kupp will see 12.5 targets, catch 8.9 balls for 102.9 yards. A fair number for the Kupp over should be -363, but we only have to give -145.
3) Robert Woods, under 5.5 receptions, -135.
Woods has been a disappointment this season and through the first four games has yet to catch six balls in a game.
The primary reason is opportunity.
Last season he averaged 8.1 targets, but through for games this season he’s getting only 6.3 targets.
The SIS prediction analysis says he will see 5.6 targets, catch 3.8 balls for 42.5 yards.
If correct, a fair number for the under would be -442, yet at DraftKings the number is set at -135.
SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Odds –
Quarterback Passing Yards
————————————
Matthew Stafford, over 298.5, -115/under -115
Russell Wilson, over 266.5, -115/under -115
Quarterback Passing TDs
———————————–
Matthew Stafford, over 2.5, TDs, +130/under -175
Russell Wilson, over 1.5 TDs, -155/under +115
Quarterback Interceptions
———————————-
Matthew Stafford, over 0.5, INTs, +110/under -145
Russell Wilson, over 0.5 INTs, +130/under -175
Quarterback Completions
———————————-
Matthew Stafford, over 25.5, completions, -110/under -125
Russell Wilson, over 24.5 completions, -105/under -125
Touchdown Scorers
Los Angeles Rams –
Cooper Kupp, -130
Darrell Henderson Jr., -110
Robert Woods, +110
Van Jefferson, +200
Tyler Higbee, +200
Sony Michel, +230
DeSean Jackson, +300
Matthew Stafford, +550
Seattle –
Chris Carson, -110
Tyler Lockett, +100
DK Metcalf, +105
Alex Collins, +200
Freddie Swaim, +200
Russell Wilson, +300
Gerald Everett, +350
Will Dissly, +400
Travis Homer, +450
DeeJay Dallas, +450
Rushing Yards
——————-
Los Angeles –
Darrell Henderson Jr., 64.5, over -115/under -115
Matthew Stafford, 5.5, over -110/under -120
Seattle –
Chris Carson, 46.5, over -110/under -120
Russell Wilson, 21.5, over -110/under -120
Receiving Yards
———————
Los Angeles –
Cooper Kupp, 84.5, over -115/under -115
Darrell Henderson Jr., 20.5, over -115/under -115
Robert Woods, 60.5, over -115/under -115
Tyler Higbee, 42.5, over -115/under -115
Van Jefferson, 44.5, over -110/under -120
Seattle –
Chris Carson, 9.5, over -115/under -115
DK Metcalf, 73.5, over -115/under -115
Freddie Swaim, 21.5, over -110/under -120
Tyler Lockett, 67.5, over -115/under -115
Receptions
————–
Los Angeles –
Cooper Kupp, 6.5, over -145/under +110
Darrell Henderson Jr., 2.5, over -180/under +135
Robert Woods, 5.5, over +100/under -135
Tyler Higbee, 3.5, over -125/under -105
Van Jefferson, 3.5, over -110/under -120
Seattle –
Chris Carson, 1.5, over -140/under +105
DK Metcalf, 5.5, over -150/under +115
Freddie Swaim, 2.5, over +145/under -195
Tyler Lockett, 5.5, over +100/under -130
