By STEVEN SCHWARZ
Three props for tonight’s game between the Patriots and Falcons, using SISBets.com to help us out. We’re trying to improve on our 8-12 season record and our putting our faith in these numbers.
1) Matt Ryan, over 21.5 completions, -110.
It’s been a year of adjustments for the veteran Falcons’ quarterback, Matt Ryan, who lost Julio Jones to the Titans in an off-season trade and new No. 1 receiver Calvin Ridley to personal issues. But Ryan has been a solid option for most of the season with six multi-touchdown passing games and averaging 24 completions for 253 yards per game.
He’s reached 22 or-more completions in six of nine starts this season and SIS analysis projects he’ll throw 37.3 times, completing 24.4 for 268 yards. The odds for the over are set at -110, but we think the real odds should be -249.
2) Kendrick Bourne over 33.5 yards, -115.
3) Kendrick Bourne over 2.5 receptions, -180.
The former San Francisco 49ers’ receivers has been a solid contributor in his first season with the Patriots. For the season he’s averaging 4.3 targets, 3.3 receptions and 52 receiving yards per game.
But looking closer at the numbers, after a slow start in the first two contests, he’s averaged 5.3 targets, 3.8 receptions and 61.6 yards. Last weekend he led all Patriots’ receivers in receptions (tied at 4) and yards (98).
The Falcon’s pass defense has been suspect this season, allowing 1,311 yards and 11 touchdowns to opposing wideouts. SIS data projects Bourne will catch 3.7-of-5.2 targets for 48 yards making the over on both receptions and yards excellent plays for Thursday night.
Quarterback Passing Yards
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Mac Jones, 251.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Matt Ryan, 251.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Quarterback Passing TDs
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Mac Jones, over 1.5 TDs, -130/under +100
Matt Ryan, over 1.5 TDs, over +125/under -170
Quarterback Interceptions
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Mac Jones, over 0.5, INTs, +120/under -160
Matt Ryan, over 0.5 INTs, -160/under +120
Quarterback Completions
———————————-
Mac Jones, over 23.5, +100/under -130
Matt Ryan, over 21.5, -110/under -120
Touchdown Scorers
New England –
Rhamondre Stevenson, -115
Damien Harris, -115
Hunter Henry, +120
Jakobi Meyers, +140
Kendrick Bourne, +225
Nelson Agholor, +250
Brandon Bolden, +300
Jonnu Smith, +350
Mac Jones, +600
N’Keal Harry, +750
Atlanta –
Cordarrelle Patterson, +100
Mike Davis, +180
Kyle Pitts, +175
Olamide Zaccheaus, +230
Russell Gage, +275
Wayne Gallman, +300
Matt Ryan, +750
Rushing Yards
——————-
New England –
Damien Harris, 57.5, over -115/under -115
Mac Jones, 5.5, over -110/under -120
Atlanta –
Matt Ryan, 3.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Receiving Yards
———————
New England –
Hunter Henry, 33.5, over -115/under -115
Jakobi Meyers, 55.5, over -115/under -115
Kendrick Bourne, 33.5, over -115/under -115
Nelson Agholor, 35.5, over -115/under -115
Atlanta –
Kyle Pitts, 65.5, over -115/under -115
Olamide Zaccheaus, 34.5, over -115/under -115
Russell Gage, 41.5, over -115/under -115
Receptions
————–
New England –
Hunter Henry, 3.5, over +120/under -160
Jakobi Meyers, 4.5, over -150/under +115
Kendrick Bourne, 2.5, over -180/under +135
Nelson Agholor, 3.5, over +140/under -190
Atlanta –
Kyle Pitts, 4.5, over -165/under +120
Olamide Zaccheaus, 2.5, over -140/under +105
Russell Gage, 3.5, over -130/under -105
