By Steve Schwarz
Good game tonight with the Chiefs and Chargers squaring off, so we’ve got four prop possibilities with the help of our tools at SISBets.com.
For the record, we’re 15-18 on these picks this season but are 4-2 on our last 6.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
1) Patrick Mahomes, under 25.5 completions, -105.
The dynamic Mahomes we have come to know has disappeared during the Chiefs’ current six-game winning streak. Instead, we have a more conservative version. This version has cracked 300 just once in his last seven games and thrown fewer than 24 completions in five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass defense allows only 20.4 completions per game. SIS analysis projects Mahomes going 23.9-of-37.1 for 275.4 yards.
2) Tyreek Hill, under 6.5 receptions, +105.
With Mahomes throwing less and teams playing two-deep safeties to prevent the long pass, Hill’s numbers having suffered a bit. He has just six receptions in his last two games and 26 catches over his last five starts. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers (148) through 13 games.
Our data predicts Hill to see 8.4 targets and catch 5.5 balls for 67.3 yards.
3) Darrel Williams, over 14.5 rushing yards, -115.
Williams has become an integral part of the Kansas City offense since Week 3 and has rushed for more than 14.5 yards in 10-of-his-last 11 games. The return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from an MCL sprain has reduced his workload, but Williams has still surpassed the number in two of three contests.
SIS data projects Williams to get 6.2 rushing attempts for 25.7 yards, almost double the necessary amount for the over.
4) Keenan Allen, under 75.5 receiving yards, -115.
Allen missed the Week 14 contest due to a positive Covid-19 test, but he’s since had two negative tests and is expected to be on the field Thursday night.
The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with Allen sidelined and the second-year star quarterback showed he could spread the ball around using wideouts Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, running back Austin Ekeler and his tight ends to perfection. Allen is still the No. 1 guy, but Herbert isn’t afraid to look elsewhere if he’s covered or likely double-covered for much of the night. The Chiefs held Allen to just 50 yards in their first meeting this season.
Our analysis projects Allen with 7.2 targets and 4.9 receptions for just 53 yards, well below the 75.5 receiving yards total.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes
Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115
Over 2.5 TD passes +140, under -190
Over 0.5 INTs +120, under -160
Over 25.5 completions -130, under -105
Justin Herbert
Over 287.5 yards -115, under -115
Over 2.5 TD passes +155, under -210
Over 0.5 INTs +115, under -115
Over 25.5 completions -110, under -120
TD Scorers
Kansas City –
Tyreek Hill, -110
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, +100
Travis Kelce, +110
Darrel Williams, +190
Patrick Mahomes, +350
Mecole Hardman, +360
Brian Pringle, +360
Demarcus Robinson, +550
Los Angeles Chargers –
Austin Ekeler, -150
Keenan Allen, +150
Mike Williams, +175
Jalen Guyton, +300
Jared Cook, +300
Justin Herbert, +400
Joshua Palmer, +350
Justin Jackson, +350
Donald Parham Jr., +450
Rushing Yards
Kansas City –
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 56.5 yards -120, under -110
Darrel Williams, over 14.5 yards -115, under -115
Patrick Mahomes, over 18.5 yards -115, under -115
Los Angeles Chargers –
Justin Herbert, over 15.5 yards, -115, under -115
Receptions
Kansas City –
Tyreek Hill, over 6.5 receptions -140, under +105
Travis Kelce, over 5.5 receptions -155, under +115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 2.5 receptions +125, under -165
Darrel Williams, over 2.5 receptions +115, under -155
Los Angeles Chargers –
Keenan Allen, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115
Mike Williams, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115
Jalen Guyton, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115
Austin Ekeler, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115
Receiving Yards
Kansas City –
Tyreek Hill, over 81.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Travis Kelce, over 65.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 13.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Darrel Williams, over 18.5 receiving yards -125, under -105
Los Angeles Chargers –
Keenan Allen, over 75.5 receiving yards -120, under -115
Mike Williams, over 54.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
