This is one of many articles appearing in The Bill James Handbook, 2023. The Handbook contains original research, essays from Bill James, Rob Neyer, Joe Posnanski, and Bobby Scales, our hitter and pitcher projections for 2023, and much more. The 34th annual edition of the Handbook is available now at ACTA Sports or wherever you get your books.

Thank <insert deity of your choosing> for Sandy Alcantara.

The Marlins ace finished the season with three straight starts of eight or more innings and one earned run allowed, claiming the crown of World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher from Max Scherzer.

If you’re curious how the rankings work, read this article from Bill James. In brief, World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher uses a pitcher’s collective game-by-game Game Score as its basis. Most recent performance is most important.

First off, I’m glad to see some new blood at the top of these rankings. Since the start of 2019, one of Gerrit Cole or Scherzer has held that spot more than 80 percent of the time.

But more importantly, Alcantara is a counterweight to the general decline of the workhorse in a world that’s changing how it views starting pitching.

Back in 2010, Félix Hernández won the AL Cy Young Award with a league-leading 2.27 ERA and 249.2 innings pitched. That result reflected a change in the way we view pitching excellence, because his 13-12 record paled in comparison to his closest competitors.

(He finished that regular season as the World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher but lost the crown to Roy Halladay in the playoffs. Halladay no-hit the Reds in his first playoff outing, a game which I was fortunate enough to attend.)

Last year, Corbin Burnes’ selection as the NL Cy Young winner might be indicative of another shift in the mindset of award voters. Almost all modern Cy Young winners have thrown 200 innings, but Burnes took home the hardware with just 167 innings. If he had missed one more start—he made 28—he wouldn’t have qualified for the ERA title.

Burnes wasn’t the World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher at any point in that season, because he was not elite prior and didn’t pile up enough elite innings to make a quick ascent. He did claim the title for a stretch this summer when he didn’t allow more than three earned runs for a month.

Alcantara blends the old world and the new world. He throws as fast a fastball as anyone, and he also doubled the next-most complete games by a starter this year. (You can find both of those facts in the Leaderboards section of our book!)

All right, enough about the top guy; let’s find a transition to other topics.

Speaking of new things and fastballs…the highest-ranked player who is new to the list is Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, who didn’t even start a game until May 30th. Last year’s best debut was Alek Manoah, whose All-Star campaign in 2022 got him into the top ten by the end of the year.

In terms of quality pitching staffs, it’s no surprise that playoff teams dominate this list. The Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Cardinals each have at least four pitchers in the top 60, and the Brewers just barely missed the postseason with the same qualification.

On the flip side, six teams didn’t have any starters in the top 60. The odd team out in that group is the Orioles, who had a winning record and won 17 more games than any of the others without a top-60 starter. The Nationals didn’t have a starter in the top 100 (if only barely), with Josiah Gray ranking 101st.

World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Leaderboard

Through end of  2022 regular season

Rank Player Opening Day Rank May 1 Rank June 1 Rank July 1 Rank Aug. 1 Rank Sept. 1 Rank Oct. 5 Rank
1 Alcantara, Sandy 15 14 4 2 3 2 493
2 Scherzer, Max 1 1 1 5 1 1 492.1
3 Urias, Julio 13 10 13 10 9 4 483
4 Cole, Gerrit 3 4 3 3 4 3 482.4
5 Burnes, Corbin 7 2 2 1 2 6 482.2
6 Fried, Max 8 6 6 4 5 5 480.9
7 Cease, Dylan 35 29 25 21 8 7 480.8
8 Gallen, Zac 50 42 34 38 30 12 480.2
9 Ohtani, Shohei 31 28 23 15 13 15 479.3
10 Manoah, Alek 44 25 20 17 16 20 477.1
11 Darvish, Yu 22 26 26 20 14 16 476.7
12 Nola, Aaron 25 21 14 7 7 13 476
13 Woodruff, Brandon 9 11 18 27 18 24 475.3
14 Rodon, Carlos 29 17 24 13 11 14 472.6
15 Wheeler, Zack 4 8 5 6 6 9 467.8
16 Bieber, Shane 33 24 31 26 27 18 466
17 Verlander, Justin 108 70 45 31 22 19 464.6
18 McKenzie, Triston 72 61 49 55 31 28 460.1
19 Kershaw, Clayton 23 18 22 33 26 33 453.6
20 Valdez, Framber 40 43 28 25 21 17 452.8
21 Ray, Robbie 6 7 10 8 17 8 451.8
22 Gausman, Kevin 11 5 7 14 23 23 450.4
23 Morton, Charlie 2 9 17 12 12 11 449.2
24 Musgrove, Joe 26 16 11 9 15 25 449.1
25 Webb, Logan 18 23 19 16 19 27 448.8
26 McClanahan, Shane 56 31 21 11 10 10 448.7
27 Cortes, Nestor 84 69 43 46 38 36 446.7
28 Castillo, Luis 19 47 47 35 24 26 445.6
29 Anderson, Tyler 80 82 57 52 36 32 443.4
30 Kelly, Merrill 73 45 61 45 25 22 441.2
31 Javier, Cristian 108 165 111 66 72 49 441
32 Bassitt, Chris 27 22 27 30 32 29 438.6
33 Garcia, Luis 41 32 35 32 35 46 429.3
34 Gonsolin, Tony 108 99 58 29 37 30 427.1
35 Strider, Spencer 186 114 77 39 426.4
36 Stroman, Marcus 39 40 42 74 61 66 426.2
37 Mikolas, Miles 108 72 71 48 42 54 425.5
38 Perez, Martin 108 103 46 49 41 41 425.1
39 Quantrill, Cal 55 56 53 54 67 37 424.4
40 Wright, Kyle 108 68 55 51 46 34 423.9
41 Montgomery, Jordan 61 55 48 41 50 35 423.8
42 Gilbert, Logan 82 54 44 39 39 60 423.5
43 Snell, Blake 38 87 128 120 98 73 422.4
44 Quintana, Jose 108 115 80 81 73 74 422.2
45 Marquez, German 32 36 59 57 52 42 421.6
46 Lauer, Eric 60 41 41 59 53 48 420.9
47 Singer, Brady 103 184 116 115 76 59 420.5
48 Wainwright, Adam 10 19 12 19 20 21 420.3
49 Giolito, Lucas 12 13 15 37 47 61 419.8
50 Gray, Sonny 43 51 37 36 54 38 419.5
51 Taillon, Jameson 63 65 50 53 56 57 419.1
52 Peralta, Freddy 24 27 29 44 65 47 418.9
53 Mahle, Tyler 28 38 38 28 29 31 418.2
54 Rasmussen, Drew 105 107 84 110 91 56 416.1
55 Lopez, Pablo 71 44 36 42 48 55 415.1
56 Urquidy, Jose 74 92 100 82 58 43 414.6
57 Pivetta, Nick 47 60 33 22 44 40 414.6
58 Ryan, Joe 108 67 70 79 90 78 412.1
59 Eovaldi, Nathan 17 12 16 24 40 52 411.3
60 Walker, Taijuan 76 89 87 63 51 69 411
61 Springs, Jeffrey 167 106 93 108 87 411
62 Sandoval, Patrick 108 93 85 80 95 67 410.2
63 Stripling, Ross 108 119 159 102 87 75 408.7
64 Montas, Frankie 20 20 9 18 28 44 408.7
65 Greene, Hunter 140 107 86 70 96 408.2
66 Suarez, Ranger 70 78 82 77 66 62 405.5
67 Buehler, Walker 5 3 8 23 33 45 405.4
68 Gray, Jon 66 80 65 47 45 65 404.8
69 Berrios, Jose 14 15 32 40 34 51 404.4
70 Lodolo, Nick 137 197 220 142 116 403.9
71 Freeland, Kyle 69 63 73 61 62 83 403.6
72 Steele, Justin 108 147 110 92 82 53 401.2
73 Cobb, Alex 97 163 134 124 94 80 400.2
74 Keller, Mitch 108 124 154 136 93 104 399.6
75 Wacha, Michael 94 74 69 65 86 68 398.9
76 Hill, Rich 52 59 67 62 81 86 398.5
77 Lynn, Lance 16 35 140 157 154 98 397.4
78 Cueto, Johnny 108 184 144 98 74 63 397.3
79 Gonzales, Marco 37 46 52 43 68 76 395.2
80 Detmers, Reid 108 121 92 105 71 71 395.1
81 Skubal, Tarik 65 64 30 50 43 64 394.6
82 Severino, Luis 108 83 58 75 100 393.7
83 Luzardo, Jesus 108 95 121 150 162 120 393.6
84 Lyles, Jordan 75 91 88 109 88 89 393.5
85 Kirby, George 133 123 104 81 393.5
86 deGrom, Jacob 42 94 214 220 227 102 393.2
87 Kremer, Dean 108 184 214 125 137 103 392.3
88 Irvin, Cole 87 79 91 90 57 58 392
89 Manaea, Sean 51 34 40 34 55 84 391.7
90 Kopech, Michael 108 88 66 64 64 70 391.3
91 Greinke, Zack 36 33 63 69 79 88 391.1
92 Smyly, Drew 108 109 102 135 138 90 389
93 Sampson, Adrian 108 184 214 194 144 142 387.8
94 Gibson, Kyle 54 37 51 60 63 50 387.6
95 Kluber, Corey 108 111 104 89 83 85 387
96 Wood, Alex 49 49 60 67 49 72 386.5
97 Carrasco, Carlos 108 118 90 117 80 94 385.8
98 Davies, Zach 108 123 122 78 111 91 385.7
99 Kaprielian, James 96 184 151 132 103 121 384.1
100 Suarez, Jose 99 143 199 154 148 110 384
101 Gray, Josiah 108 84 103 73 78 82 383.8
102 Otto, Glenn 108 139 127 163 141 107 383.5
103 Anderson, Ian 30 30 39 56 60 77 382.8
104 Syndergaard, Noah 108 105 108 95 96 99 382.7
105 Dunning, Dane 108 102 99 84 102 92 380.9
106 Flexen, Chris 57 53 62 71 59 79 380.8
107 Bradish, Kyle 176 188 220 188 126 379
108 Rodriguez, Eduardo 46 52 56 87 115 123 378.4
109 Clevinger, Mike 108 184 164 130 92 101 377.7
110 Cabrera, Edward 108 184 153 166 199 129 377.1
111 Voth, Austin 108 184 214 171 140 109 376.5
112 Brubaker, JT 108 134 94 94 100 97 374.2
113 Civale, Aaron 89 178 173 181 151 134 374
114 Bumgarner, Madison 68 50 54 68 69 114 373.9
115 Plesac, Zach 81 85 101 70 84 93 373.8
116 Garrett, Braxton 108 184 214 188 120 115 372.8
117 German, Domingo 108 184 214 220 193 131 371.9
118 Rogers, Trevor 53 58 75 88 106 118 371.9
119 Peterson, David 108 110 135 108 97 95 371.6
120 Contreras, Roansy 108 184 163 147 147 136 370.9
121 Sanchez, Anibal 108 184 214 220 202 149 370.8
122 Heaney, Andrew 108 113 172 177 166 140 369.8
123 Falter, Bailey 108 184 210 200 170 146 368.8
124 Bundy, Dylan 108 96 136 121 122 105 368.3
125 Wells, Tyler 144 98 75 85 108 368