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For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m going to try something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal.
Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.
With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.
Underdog: Breece Hall- Alternate Rushing + Receiving Yards, 100+: +225
Our projections models project Breece Hall to pick up 58 yards on the ground and 42 yards through the air this week; 100 total yards right on the nose.
Washington has been awful against the run since trading away the majority of its starting defensive line prior to Week 9. The defense is allowing the 5th-most yards per carry (4.8) of any team in the league over that time frame. Hall has two 100-yard rushing games this year. Both came against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Bills and Broncos).
The Commanders have also struggled to contain running backs in the passing game since those deadline moves, having given up the 2nd-most receiving yards (291) and 4th-most yards per reception (8.3) over that span.
On the flip side, Hall has 53 receptions this year, 3rd in the NFL. He also ranks 3rd in targets and 4th in receiving yards.
Hall is also averaging just under 5 targets per game and has at least 5 receptions in 4 out of his last 5 contests.
Yes, the Jets rank 30th in both Passing and Rushing Total Points Per Play but their reliance on Hall in the passing game is what gives me the confidence to make him my underdog/superdog pick this week.
Favorite: Cleveland Browns Moneyline: -148
The Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The 33rd Team website, views the matchup between the Texans offensive line and Browns defensive line as the 2nd-largest Week 16 mismatch among all line matchups.
Myles Garrett has the second-most Points Saved (38) of any pass rusher and most Points Saved Per Play of any defensive lineman this year, and has been far from the only contributor up front.
With Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason both questionable and trending towards not playing this weekend for the Texans, expect the Browns defensive front to fare well against whichever backup QB Houston decides to roll with as its starter.
Favorite: Jake Browning- Alternate Passing Yards Over 221.5: -170
Since taking over as the Bengals starter in Week 12, Jake Browning has the 3rd-most Total Points (33.6), 2nd-highest EPA (22.1), 3rd-best passer rating (109.3), and 4th-highest IQR (111.3) in the entire league.
Browning has thrown for over 225 yards in every single game he’s started while averaging 295 per game. His completion percentage (74%), on-target percentage (80%) and catchable percentage (95%) are all top-tier.
Our models are currently projecting 250.9 yards passing from Browning this week, making his alternate over/under of 221.5 my confidence play.
Total Parlay Odds: +764
All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:10 AM 12/21/2023
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