Photo: Steven King/Icon Sportswire
“There is no great genius without a touch of madness.” – Aristotle
I may have been told by my boss to not be too arrogant, but unfortunately I couldn’t really hear him from up here on my high-horse. For I am the self-described Sultan of Spreads, Lord of Long-Odds, Paladin of Parlays, or more commonly known, the intern who won you $764.00 last week. Kiss the rings.
To briefly recap; Jake Browning didn’t have his best stuff in Pittsburgh, but still cleared the 221.5 mark with ease after Cincinnati abandoned the run early. Cleveland dominated Houston in a game that was 36-7 midway through the 4th. And Breece Hall, my Underdog of the Week, gouged Washington for 191 total yards, passing his 100+ prop before halftime.
All three lines saw a ton of movement prior to their respective kickoffs, but we locked in this parlay at +764. Based on a $100.00 weekly wager, that win gives us a running payout total of $864.00 heading into Week 17.
Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.
With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.
Underdog – Jahmyr Gibbs Alternate Rushing Yards Over 66.5: +210
Among running backs with 100+ carries, Gibbs is leading the league in yards per attempt (5.7) by almost half of a yard (.3). Over the last four weeks he’s averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and 76.5 yards per game.
Gibbs also has a broken or missed tackle on 27% of his rush attempts and is averaging 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, good enough for 2nd and 6th respectively among running backs with 100+ carries. He’s been better in both metrics over the last four weeks.
While Gibbs is electric, he’s bankable because of the quality of the offensive line in Detroit. Four-fifths of the Lions’ starting offensive lineman are ranked in the top 25 for run blocking Total Points this season.
The only two other teams with four lineman in the top 25 of that list are the Eagles and Bills. Both teams rushed for 100+ yards in all three of their matchups with Dallas, including a 266 yard explosion from Buffalo in Week 15.
Even – Kyren Williams Rushing Yards Over 94.5: -115
Williams is averaging a league-best 120.2 yards per game since returning from injury Week 12, clearing 100 in 4 out of 5 contests. For the full season, he’s leading all rushers with 96.1 yards per game and 30 Total Points. He’s also averaging the 4th most yards per attempt among running backs with 100+ carries (5.1).
Across the ball, the Giants have given up 3rd most rushing yards (1,709) and the 4th highest yards per carry (4.6) to running backs. Their run defense has the 5th worst Total Points per play this season.
Our model is projecting Williams to rush for 108.1 yards this week. That’s 13.6 yards above his current over/under line, and the largest such gap currently available on DraftKings.
Heavy Favorite – Dak Prescott Alternate Passing Yards Over 250.5: -265
Prescott has cleared the 250 passing yard mark in seven of nine games since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. On the year, he’s 3rd in the league in Independent Quarterback Rating (104.8) and 6th in yards per attempt (7.5) among passers with at least 100 attempts.
According to our model, he’s projected to throw for 284.8 yards, the 2nd highest total this week. CeeDee Lamb is also projected by the same model to lead the league in receiving yardage against Detroit. Lamb is the only receiver projected to top the 100 yard mark, and is 18.5 yards ahead of our 2nd highest projection.
Detroit, conveniently, is vulnerable to the big play. Their pass defense is allowing big-EPA pass plays at the 2nd highest rate and is allowing the 5th highest average air yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (284.5). Overall, the Lions are allowing the 11th worst passer rating against and 8th most pass yards per attempt (7.6).
Total Parlay Odds: +621
All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:47 AM 12/28/2023
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