Josh Allen is The World’s No. 1 Quarterback entering this postseason.

It took the entire season for Allen to supplant Mahomes for the No. 1 spot in our statistical ranking system but it finally happened when, with Mahomes sitting out, Allen threw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 67 more yards in a division-clinching win over the Dolphins.

Allen spent all but one week this season in the No. 2 spot, the exception being after Week 1 when he threw 3 interceptions in a loss to the Jets and dropped to No. 3 behind Justin Herbert.

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

Allen led the NFL in Total Points for the first time after ranking in the Top 5 in that stat, but never atop, in each of the past 3 seasons. He also fared better than Mahomes (and everyone except Tyrod Taylor) in that stat on a per-snap basis.

Allen finished 2023 with a career-best 88% catchable pass percentage (one of SIS’ proprietary stats) and the NFL’s lowest sack percentage (4%). 

He had by far the best game of any quarterback in Week 5, throwing for 359 yards in a win over the Dolphins and the best game of any quarterback in a Week 12 loss to the Eagles when he threw for 339 yards and ran for 81 and 2 touchdowns.

From Week 12 on, Allen led the NFL in Points Above Average (36.7), ahead of Dak Prescott (31.1), Jordan Love (26.1), Derek Carr (23.8) and Lamar Jackson (22.7). Mahomes was nowhere in sight. In fact, he finished with -2.1 Points Above Average, a drop that actually began in Week 13 against the Packers. Neither Mahomes nor Allen had a positive EPA when their teams went head-to-head in Week 14. Allen bounced back from that, Mahomes has not yet.

Here’s a comparison of the Top 10 quarterbacks in these rankings entering the regular season and at the end of the regular season.

Entering Season End Of Season
1. Patrick Mahomes 1. Josh Allen
2. Josh Allen 2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Justin Herbert 3. Dak Prescott
4. Jalen Hurts 4. Jared Goff
5. Joe Burrow 5. Jalen Hurts
6. Jared Goff 6. Brock Purdy
7. Dak Prescott 7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. Kirk Cousins 8. Lamar Jackson
9. Tua Tagovailoa 9. Derek Carr
10. Daniel Jones 10. Justin Herbert

Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson were the big gainers here, with Purdy showing that his close to 2022 was no fluke. He jumped from No. 17 entering the season to No. 6 ending it. 

Jackson climbed from No. 19 to a season-ending No. 8, though public perception of his skills is higher than that. He’s the favorite to win the league’s MVP. Dak Prescott moved up from No. 7 to No. 3, a spot he’s held the last 8 weeks as he supplanted Jared Goff. Derek Carr, who consistently ranked in the Top 10 from 2019 to 2021 found his way back in during the final 2 weeks of the 2023 season. He sits at No. 9. 

Herbert had dropped to No. 8 before his injury and his missing the last few weeks bumped him to the bottom of the Top 10. Joe Burrow’s injury dropped him just out of the Top 10. He’s now No. 12.  Daniel Jones’ presence in the Top 10 is a distant memory to Giants fans. His Opening Day struggles pushed him out, never to return. He currently stands at No. 30.

Here’s the full list.

Rk Player PAA Per 60 LastRk StartOfSeasonRk
1 Josh Allen 6.4 2 2
2 Patrick Mahomes 6.2 1 1
3 Dak Prescott 5.4 3 7
4 Jared Goff 3.9 7 6
5 Jalen Hurts 3.9 4 4
6 Brock Purdy 3.6 5 17
7 Tua Tagovailoa 3.6 6 9
8 Lamar Jackson 3.0 8 19
9 Derek Carr 2.6 10 15
10 Justin Herbert 2.2 9 3
11 Matthew Stafford 1.6 11 22
12 Joe Burrow 1.6 12 5
13 C.J. Stroud 1.3 15 N/A
14 Kirk Cousins 1.2 13 8
15 Geno Smith 1.0 14 21
16 Jordan Love 0.8 16 60
17 Trevor Lawrence 0.1 17 18
18 Gardner Minshew -0.2 19 38
19 Baker Mayfield -0.2 18 81
20 Tyrod Taylor -0.3 22 45
21 Justin Fields -0.5 20 23
22 Jacoby Brissett -0.6 21 12
23 Kyler Murray -1.0 26 20
24 Jake Browning -1.0 24 N/A
25 Andy Dalton -1.0 23 13
26 Deshaun Watson -1.3 25 28
27 Aaron Rodgers -1.5 27 11
28 Russell Wilson -1.7 29 29
29 Tom Brady -1.8 30 16
30 Daniel Jones -2.0 32 10
31 Mason Rudolph -2.0 31 55
32 Joshua Dobbs -2.0 33 64
33 Sam Howell -2.1 28 35
34 Aidan OConnell -2.2 45 N/A
35 C.J. Beathard -2.3 35 48
36 Carson Wentz -2.4 54 39
37 Sam Darnold -2.4 38 24
38 Ryan Tannehill -2.4 34 14
39 Teddy Bridgewater -2.4 36 25
40 Anthony Richardson -2.5 37 N/A
41 Brian Hoyer -2.7 39 51
42 Jarrett Stidham -2.8 61 40
43 Zach Wilson -2.8 40 70
44 Blaine Gabbert -2.8 53 49
45 Matt Ryan -2.8 41 33
46 Davis Webb -2.8 42 36
47 Bryce Perkins -2.8 43 41
48 Josh Johnson -2.8 44 37
49 Drew Lock -2.9 46 58
50 Joe Flacco -2.9 48 34
51 Skylar Thompson -2.9 49 47
52 Chad Henne -2.9 50 46
53 Nathan Peterman -2.9 53 52
54 Chris Streveler -3.0 56 63
55 Ian Book -3.0 57 62
56 Tyler Huntley -3.0 80 80
57 Kenny Pickett -3.0 58 31
58 Sean Mannion -3.0 59 N/A
59 Brandon Allen -3.0 60 65
60 Trey Lance -3.1 62 71
61 Colt McCoy -3.1 63 68
62 Malik Willis -3.1 65 77
63 Mitch Trubisky -3.1 64 30
64 Jake Fromm -3.1 66 N/A
65 Tommy DeVito -3.1 67 N/A
66 David Blough -3.2 68 72
67 Sam Ehlinger -3.2 69 73
68 Mike White -3.2 70 74
69 Marcus Mariota -3.2 47 43
70 Nick Mullens -3.2 84 66
71 Cooper Rush -3.2 72 75
72 Tyson Bagent -3.2 73 N/A
73 Jimmy Garoppolo -3.2 71 27
74 Anthony Brown -3.3 76 76
75 Jaren Hall -3.3 75 N/A
76 John Wolford -3.3 77 78
77 Easton Stick -3.4 78 N/A
78 Jeff Driskel -3.4 55 57
79 Jameis Winston -3.5 79 42
80 Kyle Allen -3.6 81 82
81 Nick Foles -3.6 83 84
82 Case Keenum -3.6 82 44
83 Brett Rypien -3.6 85 59
84 Desmond Ridder -3.6 91 67
85 Tim Boyle -3.8 86 69
86 Dorian Thompson-Robinson -3.8 87 N/A
87 Taylor Heinicke -3.8 88 83
88 Will Levis -3.9 89 N/A
89 Trace McSorley -4.0 90 86
90 Davis Mills -4.2 92 85
91 Clayton Tune -4.3 93 N/A
92 Bailey Zappe -4.3 74 32
93 Trevor Siemian -4.7 94 56
94 Mac Jones -4.7 95 26
95 Bryce Young -5.5 96 N/A
96 P.J. Walker -5.5 97 79