Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.
Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.
After starting this run with a win, we’ve missed on our last two attempts, with last week’s effort doomed by George Pickens and his mystifying zero targets. But again, the odds here are always long, and many Baseball Writers Association members would consider a .333 career batting average to be Hall-of-Fame worthy.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Wild Card Weekend:
Underdog – Baker Mayfield Alternate Passing Yards, Over 246.5 @ +135
Our Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The33rdTeam.com, gives the Tampa Bay offensive line the best pass blocking matchup across the league this week.
On the year, the Eagles have given up the fifth most passing yards and second most completions, with opposing teams averaging 270 yards per game against them. They’ve allowed an opposing QB Rating of 97.9, a number that ballooned to 104.3 over their past six games.
On the other hand, the Bucs offense has been on a roll recently. Mayfield has averaged 277.5 over his last four games with a couple of 300+ yard performances mixed in. Factor in that Mayfield has topped 246.5 in 4 of his last home 5 games and he’s our pick.
Even – Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards, Over 17.5 @ -115
Warren has the 20th most yards after catch (492) of any player this season, and forces broken or missed tackles at a rate of 36 per 100 receptions, the 12th-highest rate in the league.
He’s averaged 21.8 receiving yards per game, and 25.4 over his last 5 contests. He cleared our 17.5 yard goal in four of those contests, with the lone miss being by half of a yard last weekend against Baltimore.
The Bills also gave up an average of 21.2 yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt (12th- worst) on screen targets this year. With weather conditions in Buffalo expected to limit the ability to throw the ball downfield, Warren could see additional opportunities on screens.
Favorite – Amon-Ra St. Brown Alternate Receiving Yards, Over 79.5 @ -165
Our projection model projects a big week for the Sun-God, with an estimated total of 90.5 yards. DraftKings has his Over/Under set at 88.5. We’re going to take a lower alternate total here, to make St. Brown the anchor of our final parlay this season.
St. Brown has accumulated over 79.5 yards in 11 of 16 games this season and averaged 106 yards per game in Ford Field.
Total Parlay Odds: +605
All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:15 AM 01/12/2024
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