Photo: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire
The AFC South is going through a renaissance, as 3 out of the 4 teams have replaced their head coach and starting quarterback since the end of 2022. Every team believes it has their quarterback of the future and have made personnel upgrades at key positions in free agency and the draft.
The Texans caught everyone by surprise in 2023 in the first year of the Ryans/Stroud duo, winning both the division and a playoff game. Now as the division champs, they are no longer the young team looking to make a leap, but are now the hunted.
With a young team being chased by 3 formidable opponents, this division has all the makings of a wild and wacky race in 2024. To help bring some clarity, Bryce Rossler welcomed John Shipley of Jaguar Report SI to the Off the Charts Football Podcast to break down each team and how it will fare in 2024.
Here’s one thing the two discussed about each team and how that will impact them this season.
The Texans receiving core is really good and maximized by their scheme
Last season, the Texans had the 4th-most Receiving Total Points. Now, C.J. Stroud moves into year 2 with another top tier receiver in Stefon Diggs. With all of this talent, there is a legitimate argument the Texans can have the most prolific passing attack in the league this year.
Nico Collins returns as WR1 after posting a top 10 Receiving Total Points season last year. Collins is a big play waiting to happen, as he ranked behind only Brandon Aiyuk in Boom Percentage last year (plays with 1 EPA or greater) among players with at least 100 targets.
Two other Texans receivers, Tank Dell and Noah Brown, finished high in Boom Percentage too. The big play of these Texans receivers comes from both their talent and the scheme.
“I think their scheme impacts a lot of things. For example, the motions and play actions they did against the Jaguars last year led to two 50+ yard catches from Tank Dell where there wasn’t a DB within 10-15 yards of him because it was a complete coverage bust.”
– John Shipley
All eyes will be on the Texans offense in 2024 to see if it can replicate the success o 2023 and potentially make a deeper run into the playoffs.
Ryan Nielsen is an upgrade at defensive coordinator for the Jaguars
Ryan Nielsen takes over for Mike Caldwell to lead the Jaguars defense in 2024. Nielsen comes over from the Falcons where he improved a defense that ranked T-29th in EPA per Play in 2022 to T-7th in 2023. The pass rush doubled its sack total from one year to the next.
The Jaguars have talent in the pass rush department that is looking to take the next step as well. Josh Hines-Allen is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate (T-8th in odds at Draft Kings) and had the 4th-highest pressure rate among players with at least 300 pass rush snaps in 2023. They also added former 49ers defensive linemen Arik Armstead who is coming off a 5-sack season in only 12 games from the interior.
A big question will be whether or not Travon Walker can take the next step as a former number 1 overall pick.
John believes that he has the opportunity to be more versatile in Nielsen’s scheme.
”He is this freak athlete who you can try to get mismatches against guys across the offensive line. Now that there is a guy there who has shown he is willing to move guys around, I think that will be good for their front overall.”
– John Shipley
With the talent up front and the pedigree from a defensive coordinator to improve defenses quickly, the Jaguars defensive arrow is pointing up heading into 2024.
Colts’ athletes on offense will look to push the ball downfield
“They have some absolute freaks between Jonathan Taylor, A.D. Mitchell, and Anthony Richardson. These guys are absolute mutants.”
– John Shipley
In adding Anthony Richardson back into the fold as the signal caller, this offense will look to take advantage of Richardson’s athleticism and big arm to push the ball downfield, per Bryce.
“I think he wants to push the ball. We saw some of that when Richardson was active. With Richardson healthy, I think they will be more vertically oriented.”
– Bryce Rossler
Both of them need to see it from Richardson before anointing him as an MVP contender, but they both buy into him as a guy who can get there.
Will Levis is in for a rough time
Both Bryce and John are very low on Titans quarterback Will Levis going into this season. They see too much inconsistent play and questionable decision making, which leads them to think the Titans are in for a bad year.
“He was 24th in On-Target Rate Above Expectation among 34 quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He was 32nd out of 41 quarterbacks in sack to pressure ratio. 33rd out of 35 in positive play rate and bust percentage. The lowlights are hilarious. I think it’s gonna be a trainwreck.”
-Bryce Rossler
“The best way I can describe Will Levis is that he plays like a Vince Vaughn movie character playing quarterback. There was one start against the Jags last year where he took a sack because he turned to hand the ball off the wrong way. I would be surprised if it ended up working out for him.”
-John Shipley
Yikes, not good. One thing going for Levis is that he can throw the ball downfield. He ranked 1st in average depth of target and was middle of the pack in boom percentage. He has the cannon arm, but he needs to limit all of the mistakes and ill-advised plays if the Titans offense is going to succeed. The addition of Calvin Ridley will provide some additional upside in a receiving group that was surprisingly above average by Total Points in 2023.
Conclusion
The SIS Betting Model sees the Texans as the division favorite with a projected 8.5 wins, but the Jaguars are close behind at 8.3. A clear dropoff ensues with the Colts at 5.8 and Titans at 4.3. A Texans repeat will be difficult with the Jaguars breathing down their necks, and if Richardson can play at that MVP level, this division can get crazy. In regards to the Titans, it might be time to pump the brakes on what this team can achieve offensively even with the weapons they added.
Check out the full breakdown of each team on the Off the Charts Football Podcast!
