Photo: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

The kings of the AFC West have been the Kansas City Chiefs for the past 8 years. By the looks of things, it seems as if the streak will not end this year, as the Chiefs are -230 favorites to win the division again according to DraftKings. The other 3 teams, meanwhile, will all have a different head coach and starting quarterback combination from what they had at the beginning of the year last year. Not ideal.

To help break it all down, Bryce Rossler and Matt Manocherian debate what we can expect from the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and new-look Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.

Here are a few takeaways from each team on what they discussed.

Can the Chiefs receiving core improve?

The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will look to bring home a third straight Lombardi Trophy. In order to do so, there needs to be improvement from their receiving core. Last year, the Chiefs receivers had the 2nd-highest drop percentage at 7.8% and the 10th-lowest on-target catch percentage at 88.4%. 

Patrick Mahomes was able to mask the issues last year, but Bryce feels that the passing game will hinge on the Chiefs pass catchers this season.

“The Chiefs’ offense is a powerhouse, but without a reliable receiving core, Mahomes might struggle to maintain his usual high level of play. We need to see some young players step up this season.”

Matt agrees, but believes that it’s not about plugging in bigger names, as he states:

“It’s not just about having big names; it’s about how they fit into the system. The Chiefs have to ensure that their receivers can create separation and make big plays down the field.”

Even with the poor showing by the receivers, the Chiefs offense still ranked 8th in EPA per pass play last year and 5th in Total Points per play. If the pass catchers play even a fraction better than they did last season, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t go for three in a row.

Bo Nix leaves a lot to be desired in year one

It’s a new dawn in Denver, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix will try to take the reins of Sean Payton’s offensive system. Matt, who was a scout for the Saints in the Payton days, knows what it takes to succeed as a quarterback under Payton.

“The thing that was non-negotiable for him was accuracy. The ability to put the ball where it needed to go. There were quarterbacks that Payton brought in that surprised me. Players like T.J. Yates who weren’t particularly accurate in college. Bo Nix is that for me.”

Bryce, who wrote our scouting report on Nix, said

 “His willingness is a problem. He leaves a lot of throws on the field past 10 yards. He makes good decisions in the quick game, but they are slow decisions. What is he doing to march the ball down the field other than the dink and dunk they did at Oregon?”

Last season, Nix had the 3rd-worst average depth of target (6.3 yards) among the 133 FBS quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. Yes, he was successful in the offense, but there wasn’t much on his end trying to push the ball down the field.

There are some decent weapons there, but everything falls back on Nix, and the guys are concerned that he won’t be able to get the job done in year one.

The Raiders pass rush will need to mask the deficiencies on the back end of the defense

Bryce and Matt highlighted the Raiders’ strong pass rush but expressed concerns about the rest of the roster. The Raiders have some standout players who can pressure the quarterback, but other areas of the team might not be as solid.

Bryce believes the Raiders pass rush as a whole is underrated. He pointed out that they were 2nd in Team Pressures Above Expectation in 2023 and have 3 players in 2024 who were in the Top 20 (Maxx Crosby 2nd, Malcolm Koonce 16th, Christian Wilkins 19th).

The pass rush is a strength going into 2024, especially if Tyree Wilson can break out in year 2. However, the pass coverage unit is going to be an issue. The Raiders coverage unit was 29th in Pass Coverage Total Points in 2023 and didn’t do much to improve it in the offseason. 

Said Bryce:

 “This is not a very inspiring back end. Also, the linebackers aren’t good in coverage. They are towards the bottom in Pass Coverage Total Points as well.”

The pass rush will need to be elite for the Raiders defense to be a formidable stop unit, as the rest of the defensive roster leaves a lot to be desired.

Justin Herbert will be limited with Greg Roman as his OC…or will he?

Matt and Bryce disagreed on the outlook of the Chargers offense under Greg Roman, citing how good of a fit he is for Justin Herbert. 

Bryce went the negative route 

“I feel bad for Justin Herbert because the offensive line is trending in the right direction and now you have nothing at receiver and you also have Greg Roman as your offensive coordinator.”

Matt disagreed and likes the perspective of Roman taking over this offense. 

“I really like this for Justin Herbert. Harbaugh and Roman made Kaepernick look good back in the day. These two are capable of putting a good offense together. 

I believe the right way to build an organization is with the quarterback and the guys up front. I think the Chargers are acknowledging they aren’t a Super Bowl contender this year, but they are interested in making the playoffs. They aren’t interested in having the most productive Justin Herbert, but the most efficient Justin Herbert.” 

Bryce disagreed, as he believes Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson (who Roman coached) are much different quarterbacks then compared to Herbert, and he believes the Roman scheme won’t fit Herbert well.

We’ll know which one was right in a few months.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model has spoken when it comes to the win totals for these teams. 

The model has the Chiefs at 10 wins, while the market has them at 11.5. With the injury risk and depth issues, the under is intriguing to the guys.

The Raiders are projected at 9.8 wins, well above the 6.5 line in the market. Matt buys the over because they are gonna be in close games and believes that Minshew is a quarterback that can win games.

The Chargers are projected to finish 3rd at 8.7 wins, a mere 0.2 wins higher than the line. The Broncos are projected last at 4.7, 0.8 less than the line. Generally, the guys agree with the model and see more negative outcomes for the Broncos than positive ones.

Check out the entire podcast to get a more in-depth analysis of each team.