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If you were tasked with predicting the team records of everyone in the NFL, the NFC North might be the hardest division to nail down with confidence. The Bears and Vikings are starting over with rookie quarterbacks, the Packers’ outlook hinges on what you think of their second half offensively, and the Lions’ dominant 2023 might be a bit of a mirage.

Bryce Rossler and Justis Mosqueda of the SB Nation blog Acme Packing Company recently discussed this on the Off The Charts Football Podcast. Let’s look at some of the questions and storylines they raised for each team. 

The Packers’ defensive front has breakout potential, but who will head that charge?

On both sides of the ball, the Packers feature potential breakout players. We highlighted the prospects of Rashan Gary, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Devonte Wyatt in a podcast earlier this offseason. And that’s not to mention the guy at the helm of the offense, Jordan Love, who was one of the best passers in the NFL over the second half of 2023.

Gary has established himself as a highly productive edge rusher, ranking towards the top of our Pressure Rate +/- and Pass Rush Total Points leaderboards for multiple years. Wyatt had the best Pressure Rate +/- in the league among interior linemen last year. 

“[Gary] got hurt in his ‘All-World’ season…In aggregate, Rashan Gary had a breakout season, but he hasn’t had a full 17 games. It’s interesting to me that they’re not having Wyatt be the starter opposite Kenny Clark right now. 

In camp, Kenny Clark has played next to T.J. Slaton a whole lot, and they’re kind of rotating Wyatt and [Karl] Brooks into that Slaton spot. I wouldn’t have thought Slaton would have been a guy that they would’ve loved this much for the 4-3 defense because he’s not really a penetrator. His TFL numbers are not nearly as high as Karl Brooks, who they drafted in the 6th round last year, or Devonte Wyatt, on a per-snap basis.”

– Justis Mosqueda

There are some pieces around Gary and Wyatt that need to coalesce, but if they both have the kind of seasons they’re capable of then this is a scary group.

Have the Lions broken out of their post-Darius-Slay funk at cornerback?

Immediately after trading cornerback Darius Slay to the Eagles in 2020, the Lions selected Jeff Okudah third overall to fill that hole. In that following season, Lions cornerbacks allowed 137 Expected Points Added, which is by far the worst of any team since we began tracking that stat in 2016. 

It’s been a bit better since then—it had to be—but there hasn’t been too much optimism on the back end of that defense until now. With a Defensive Rookie of the Year caliber season from Brian Branch and an incoming class of multiple high draft picks at cornerback (first rounder Terrion Arnold and second rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), there are a lot of pieces in place.

However, a big part of Branch’s success in 2023 was his play in the nickel corner spot. A big question is how Branch’s utilization changes if Rakestraw can crack the lineup early on, and what the long-term outlook is for a prospect like Rakestraw.

”I really like [Branch] in the nickel, but you also spent a second round pick on the nickel (Rakestraw). Is that going to be justified? There are only a couple teams leaning into that nickel spot being the primary position that everyone talks about. Now everyone’s talking about ‘Nickel is base, yadda yadda yadda.’ But if you look how players are actually deployed, you graduate out of that nickel spot in the same way that you graduate out of punt returning and kick returning.” 

– Justis Mosqueda

Is the Vikings’ roster built to win, regardless of the quarterback?

Minnesota drafted Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy early in the first round and brought in Sam Darnold to compete with him early on. Whoever the quarterback will be, the weapons around him look like those of a playoff-caliber team. 

The trouble is, the defense ranked 29th in Total Points per play last year, and 30th in pass coverage. Up front, the Vikings drafted Dallas Turner and added Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel in free agency (and lost Danielle Hunter), so they will look to take pressure off the back end by bringing the heat. 

They need to create a pass rush without having to scheme it up. The Vikings blitzed more than anyone else in the league last year, but they were among the worst teams in terms of the pressure rate they generated off of the blitz.

“Maybe they feel like Flores can scheme a lot of stuff up, and to his credit he did a lot of cool stuff last year with manufacturing pressure looks and doing some wild stuff on defense. But I just don’t think they have the horses. I guess they brought in Van Ginkel, but there’s not a ton of juice on the edge and I’m not a big fan of their secondary.” 

– Bryce Rossler

“They have a lot of offensive firepower. It’s gonna be more perimeter stuff than between the tackles; their tackles are better than their interior linemen, Aaron Jones is more an outside runner than an inside runner, all that stuff. You’re thinking fireworks on the outside. They don’t have a good defense, this team’s going to have to win in shootouts. But then you come back to Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy are the quarterbacks. So how does that all fit together?… We’ve never seen McCarthy as a high-volume passer. At Michigan he never had to be that guy, so what is that even going to look like?” 

– Justis Mosqueda

Is the Bears’ defense good enough to support the offense as it figures itself out?

While the pass rush edge (pardon the pun) might go to the Vikings, the Bears have the overall edge on defense. After an 0-4 start in 2023 they allowed more than 20 points just three times, and that was with an offense that had less firepower than it will this season.

“I like Gervon Dexter, I think he’s gonna be pretty good in this league. I know grabbing Montez Sweat was a pretty big deal for them. I’m still not a believer in those linebackers, T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds is not moving the needle for me. Jaylon Johnson is good—we’ll see what happens with the whole contractual situation. Jaquan Brisker has flashes of good and then he plays the Packers and gets embarrassed after running his mouth every single time leading up to it. I liked Tyrique Stevenson coming out as a draft pick…I’m sure there’s still some upside there.” 

-Justis Mosqueda

Total Points has more optimism about the linebacking group, with Edwards and Edmunds ranking among the top quartile among projected starting off-ball linebackers. But regardless, it’s a solid group across the depth chart, and while there’s reason to be enthusiastic about an offense headed up by a top overall pick at quarterback with multiple top-flight options at receiver, there will be some bumps in the road and having a more complete roster will help smooth out the path to contention.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model considers this division as tight as any at the top, with the Lions edging out the Packers by less than a win (12.0 to 11.2). Those are both relatively optimistic projections, somewhat impacted by a pessimistic view of the Vikings (4.8 expected wins). The Bears could easily contend for the division or face serious offseason questions depending on Caleb Williams’ development, and we project them right in the .500 range (8.8 expected wins).

Check out the full breakdown of each team on the Off the Charts Football Podcast!