Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire

We are (unofficially) halfway through the 2024 NFL season, so why not break down the current state of the awards markets. There are a lot of usual suspects at the top of the odds boards, like Josh Allen for MVP and T.J. Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, and some young stars at the top of the Rookie of the Year markets like Jayden Daniels and Jared Verse.

Is a player required to reach a threshold of play at this point in the season to have a chance at winning their respective award at season’s end? Are the favorites the locked-in winners through only 8 weeks? Each award is different and can vary on a multitude of factors that are reflected on the voters ballot, such as current production and prior prestige.

For our attempt, we dive into the world of Total Points and look at the ranking of past winners 8 weeks through the year to box in the set of candidates for 2024. The rank reflects where a player stood in their given award pool through 8 weeks of the regular season. For example, the OPOY rankings reflect an offensive player’s ranking without quarterbacks, as the award usually goes to the most productive non-quarterback (QB winners will be addressed). This attempt tries to answer if there is a certain production threshold required at this point to even have a chance at winning.

The awards covered are MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Comeback Player of the Year has an additional sentimental layer factored in and cannot be assessed strictly by production.

Without further ado, let’s dive in!

Offensive Player of the Year

* Overall Offensive Total Points Ranking

Recent history suggests that the OPOY winner can come from as far down as 16 with the exception of Todd Gurley in 2017, where he made the climb from 22nd to 1st! Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes both won while putting up historic offensive numbers at quarterback.

Players that win this award push historic production numbers at their positions, like Mahomes breaking the passing yards record, Jefferson becoming the youngest player to lead the league in receptions and receiving yards, and Henry eclipsing 2,000 rushing yards in 2020.

Somehow, someway, Derrick Henry is pushing historic numbers in his age 30 season with 946 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, both league bests from a rushing standpoint. This has propelled him to the top of the odds board as a +125 favorite.

From a Total Points perspective, Henry is 2nd among offensive players, trailing James Conner (+40000!) Conner is Top 10 in rushing yards and has scored 4 touchdowns, but his league leading 36 broken and missed tackles propel him to the top of the Total Points leaderboard as he controls the means of production. 

George Kittle, Najee Harris (2nd in broken and missed tackles himself), and the injured Chris Godwin round out the Top 5.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

There is a pretty stark trend for OROY. By this point in the season, a player has to be in the Top 10 and most likely in the Top 3. And given the current OROY Total Points leaderboard, there is a good chance this happens.

Bo Nix has the top spot with 65 Total Points, followed by Jayden Daniels with 59 and Caleb Williams with 26. This may come as a surprise given Daniels is the clear cut favorite in the market at -400, followed by Williams at +1000 and Nix at +1400.

From a counting stats perspective, Nix trails Daniels by 206 yards, but bests him by one passing touchdown. On the ground, Daniels has Nix beat by 191 yards and both have four rushing scores.

The first non-QB on the list is Brock Bowers at 5th with 16 Total Points. Bowers leads the league (not just rookies) with 52 receptions and is just outside the Top 10 with 535 receiving yards.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Defensive Player of the Year award is a bit tricky to decipher because secondary players can accumulate Total Points at a much higher clip than any of the other positions. This is due to big plays that can happen on 1-on-1 opportunities like interceptions, touchdowns, etc. 

When looking at the past few seasons, it is apparent that the winner is likely to be a pass rusher with prominent regard from prior performance. All of the players on the list were an All-Pro at one point prior to them winning the award.

The Top 2 in Total Points on the non-secondary list are Fred Warner and T.J. Watt, respectively. Ironically, Warner has accumulated the majority of his Total Points on pass defense with 26 out of his 36 and leads all linebackers with 2 INTs. Watt is T-7th with 6.5 sacks and is Top 10 in both Pass Rush Total Points and Run Defense Total Points. 

If Warner doesn’t keep up the Pass Coverage production and Watt continues the pace in both the Pass Rush and in Run Defense, Watt will take control of the top spot soon.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

This one fits the best into a clear narrative. Other than 2016, all of the winners were either in the Top 3 in non-secondary Total Points rankings or were at the top of secondary rankings halfway through the year. 

Projecting that to this season, we see a Top 3 of Jared Verse with 20 Total Points, Edgerrin Cooper with 12, and Laiatu Latu with 12. Verse is the odds on favorite to win at -120 with Latu at +600 next. Cooper is all the way down at +3000. Cooper is T-9th with 9 tackles for loss and is coming off his best game with 9 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and a forced fumble.

Including secondary players, Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter are at the top of the leaderboard and both have been stalwarts in Houston’s secondary. Lassiter is leading the league in completion percentage allowed at 29%.

MVP

Only Lamar Jackson (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2021) were outside of the Top 10 at this point in the season when they won their MVP awards. All of the others were in the Top 5. Team success also plays a large role in this award, with all of the quarterbacks on the list leading their team to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

In addition to Total Points, the last six winners of the MVP award went to the leader in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating at the end of the year and all but two (the same two above) were in the Top 4 through Week 8.

Currently, Lamar is the Total Points leader with 92. The next closest is Joe Burrow with 69 followed by Nix, Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts to round out the Top 5. In IQR, Jackson once again has the lead at 121.8 followed by Josh Allen at 113.6. Sam Darnold, Burrow, and Jared Goff round out the Top 5.

Josh Allen is the current favorite at +270, which makes sense from an IQR perspective. He does rank only 8th in Total Points and has some ground to make up on Jackson (+310) who is chasing his 3rd MVP and in the driver’s seat metrically.

Conclusion

Awards are difficult because the winners are determined by a person’s vote and not a machine, but there are metrics that certainly have high correlation when finding the winner. Total Points and IQR are good at this given we are looking for a range of players at this point in the season rather than pinpointing the winner. Only time will tell with over half of the season yet to go where the awards will land.