Photo: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

Adam Duvall and Whit Merrifield weren’t as bad as their numbers looked in 2024.

That’s not to say that either was good but that there was a vast difference between their actual OPS and their expected OPS.

Merrifield and Duvall were the two biggest statistical underachievers of 2024 in terms of actual stats and expected stats.

A brief point of explanation:

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

 This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

 Here’s the leaderboard for the hitters with the biggest negative differential between OPS and expected OPS (you can see the positive differential leaderboard in our article last week).

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, how long they spend in the air, and the speed of the batter, as well as the ballpark in which the ball was hit. 

 This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

Biggest Negative Differential – 2024 OPS and Expected OPS

Minimum 250 Plate Appearances in 2024

In Duvall’s case, part of the 106-point gap between his .569 OPS and .675 OPS was that by our expected numbers, he should have had 15 home runs instead of 11 (the most clearcut example of a homer he should’ve had is this one that was snagged by Chris Taylor but there’s also this and this).

But even with those homers and other additional hits, Duvall would still have been a below-average MLB hitter. However, in Merrifield’s case, the difference between a .625 actual OPS and a .729 expected OPS was the difference between being a well below-average MLB hitter and an above-average one. Merrifield was 14 hits and 4 doubles short of his expected totals, with a good chunk of that coming on at-’em balls, balls on which fielders were well-positioned (coincidentally here’s a play by Taylor to deny Merrifield as well).

There are three other hitters on this list that I’m going to point out. One is Giants catcher Patrick Bailey, who finished with a .637 OPS but a .723 expected OPS. Bailey’s OPS was 41 points lower than the MLB average for catchers but if he’d hit at his expected OPS, it would have been 45 points higher.

The other two hitters of note are TJ Friedl of the Reds and Marcus Semien of the Rangers. Friedl had a .750 OPS in 2022 and .819 in 2023. He dropped to .690 in 2024 but probably deserved better. People wouldn’t be wondering why Friedl had dipped had he hit at the level of his .788 expected OPS.

Opposing defenses were key to shutting Friedl down. Teams had 11 Range Runs Saved against Friedl (here’s one play that contributed). In other words, defenses were making plays against him that they weren’t making against others. Only three players had teams accumulate more Range Runs Saved against a player last season (15 against Bryson Stott was the most in MLB).

Similarly, Semien finished with a .699 expected OPS, a little better than an average second baseman (.684) but a drop from .826 and .733 the previous two seasons.

Semien’s .781 expected OPS for 2024 indicated that he was still a good hitter last season. He just wasn’t getting balls through or down that other hitters were. Teams had 11 Runs Saved from defensive positioning against Semien, tied for most by teams against a player in MLB (Yandy Díaz and Luis Arraez are those with whom he tied).