José Berríos did it again!

For the second consecutive season, the Blue Jays starting pitcher made our list of pitchers who most outperformed their expected stats.

Opponents had a .706 OPS against Berríos in 2024. The expected OPS against him was .788. The 82-point differential was tied with his teammate, Bowden Francis, for the second-highest differential among pitchers. Another Berríos teammate, long reliever Ryan Yarbrough, who split the season between the Dodgers and Blue Jays, led the way with a 104-point differential.

A brief point of explanation:

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and therefore single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

Here’s the list of pitchers with the greatest differential between their expected OPS and their actual OPS. Think of them as a group whose actual 2024 numbers could have been worse under different circumstances. 

 Greatest Differential – 2024 OPS Allowed and Expected OPS Allowed

Minimum 300 Batters Faced in 2024

That Blue Jays pitchers took the top three spots isn’t that surprising given that the team led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (and Yarbrough’s other team, the Dodgers, ranked 3rd).

Another stat we track, Defensive Runs Saved on batted balls against a pitcher, had the Blue Jays with 24 Runs Saved for Berríos, the most by any team for a pitcher in 2024. Their 13 Runs Saved for Francis ranked eighth, which is notable given that Francis didn’t even rank in the top 100 in innings pitched last season. Neither did Yarbrough, for whom the Dodgers and Blue Jays saved 10 runs.

Both Berríos and Francis allowed 1.5 home runs per 9 innings, a rate that usually yields a problematic ERA. Of the 30 pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings and allowed 1.4 homers per 9 in 2024, Francis’ 3.30 ERA was second-lowest and Berríos’ 3.60 ERA was fourth-lowest.

The most direct example of Berríos’ getting help from his defense was this home run robbery by Daulton Varsho against Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles. Varsho also likely saved the Blue Jays and Berríos two runs with this catch against Brandon Lowe of the Rays. Berríos was also helped by an infield that turned 80% of grounders and bunts into outs for him (MLB average is 73%).

In Francis’ case, 78% of balls hit in the air against him were turned into outs. MLB average is 68%. He also benefited more than once from Varsho’s MLB-leading Runs Saved season.

Berríos wasn’t the only pitcher to make the overachievers top 10 for a second straight year. Tyler Holton did too. Holton had an incredible season for the Tigers, allowing 57 hits in 94 1/3 innings. Similar to Berríos, he benefited from an infield that turned 83% of grounders and bunts against him into outs. There’s a common thread here. Yarbrough, the leading overachiever, also got an 83% out rate on grounders and bunts from his teams.

We’ll look at the top underachieving pitchers next week.