Photos: Kyle Ross (left) and Mark Albert (right)/Icon Sportswire
This week is the first weekend without an NFL game since the preseason, signaling we are winding down on a thrilling season, hopefully capped by an exhilarating Super Bowl next weekend. With only two teams left standing we are left with only a few injury storylines heading into the big game.
The Eagles played with a shuffled offensive line in the NFC Championship. It didn’t seem to negatively affect them too much against Washington, but are still dealing with injury issues on that front. We highlighted the loss of Nakobe Dean in the divisional round, but his replacement has done a nice job filling the hole that he left. Finally, a 36 year-old defensive end who was a hero in Super Bowl LII looks to potentially make a comeback for the biggest game of the season.
On the other side, Kansas City looks to be going into the game relatively healthy. The most notable injury storyline for the Chiefs is how the return of a few players who missed a majority of the season has positively impacted their team on both sides of the ball.
Landon Dickerson
For the Eagles, Landon Dickerson suffered a left knee injury in the NFC Championship game. He was playing center as opposed to his normal left guard spot, filling in for Cam Jurgens who went into the game with a back injury. Dickerson toughed it out until halftime but couldn’t continue, and the already injured Jurgens stepped in.
It would be a big loss if either of them can’t suit up, it’s a small sample size (under 200 snaps), but without Landon Dickerson on the field for the Eagles, the team’s rushing metrics take a big hit.
Dickerson On The Field | Dickerson Off The Field | |
Rushing EPA/60 Plays | 6 | -7 |
Team Blown Block % | 12.8% | 21.0% |
Rushing Yards Before Contact | 2.6 | 0.9 |
Rushing Yards Per Attempt | 5.7 | 3.6 |
Saquon Barkley specifically has 20 carries for only 69 yards when Dickerson is on the sideline this season. These metrics all trend the same way if the team has missed Cam Jurgens this season as well. If he’s limited or unable to play, Dickerson could draw another start at center for the Super Bowl if his knee allows it.
Tyler Steen was playing left guard last week when Dickerson and Jurgens were rotating at center. For the season he’s given up 9 blown blocks in 173 snaps, good for 5% of the time. On the other hand Dickerson has only given up 14 in 1,049 snaps at left guard, 1.3% of the snaps.
As the Eagles portrayed in the NFC Championship, they can be successful mixing and matching their offensive line, but when trying to lift the Lombardi Trophy, and going against a Chiefs team who hasn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 18 playoff games, having their best players in their best position is vital to their chances.
Nakobe Dean’s Replacements
We highlighted how Oren Burks has had some experience filling in for injured players in big games before. In the last 2 games where he’s started for the injured Dean at linebacker, he’s filled up the stat sheet.
Over those two games, Burks is tied for the playoff league lead in tackles for loss. He is 4th in combined tackles with 15, and among defenders with at least 3 targets against he’s tied with teammate Quinyon Mitchell for 2nd in Pass Coverage Total Points. He’s rushed on only 10% of his pass snaps but has mixed in 2 pressures with a sack. He’s filled the gap left by losing Dean nicely, and his well-rounded game is part of the reason the defense hasn’t missed a beat.
Brandon Graham Returning?
Brandon Graham was having a resurgence this season, having a monster impact on the Eagles defense, until he tore his tricep in Week 12. After what was deemed to be a season-ending injury, the Eagles have opened his practice window from IR, leaving the door slightly open for him to make a comeback.
Brandon Graham On/Off Splits in 2024
On The Field | Off The Field | |
Opposing Offense Passing EPA/60 Plays | -12 | 1 |
Opposing Offense Rushing EPA/60 Plays | -16 | -5 |
Eagles Sack % | 9.6% | 5.8% |
While the Eagles have missed his experience and tenacity for the back half of the season, his injury has allowed for the emergence of Nolan Smith, who is coming into his own in his second season. His snap count jumped drastically after Graham went down and he’s taken advantage of the opportunity. Since Week 13, the first game Graham missed, he’s 22nd in Pass Rush Total Points per play among the 124 pass rushers with at least 100 rush snaps. Teammates Moro Ojomo and Jalen Carter are right in that neighborhood, with opponents Chris Jones and George Karlaftis higher up. You probably need some dominant pass rushers if you want to be playing in February.
Chiefs key returnees
While there aren’t any glaring injury issues for Kansas City going into the Super Bowl, they had to endure their fair share during the regular season leading up to this point.
Losing Rashee Rice for the year to a knee injury in Week 4, combined with the preseason clavicle injury that sidelined offseason acquisition Hollywood Brown, left the Chiefs thin at WR early on. The growth of Xavier Worthy, the addition of Deandre Hopkins, and adding Brown back into the fold now leaves them with a wealth of playmakers for the Super Bowl.
Brown came back for his first game as a Chief in Week 16, as he’s gotten more acclimated in this offense we can see what effect he’s had on it as a whole.
Brown On The Field | Brown Off The Field | |
Total Offense EPA/60 Plays | 11 | 2 |
Passing EPA/60 Plays | 15 | 6 |
Rushing EPA/60 Plays | 4 | -4 |
While not directly correlated, an interesting fact this season is that Patrick Mahomes has yet to throw an interception with him on the field, after he threw 11 in the first 10 games of the season.
Since Xavier Worthy is so fast, people think he’s the field stretcher, but he sits 4th on the Chiefs in average depth of target, behind Justin Watson, the aforementioned Brown, and even Hopkins. The Chiefs look to get the ball in his hands quickly and then let him do the rest with his legs, instead of launching the ball to him downfield. He leads the team in yards after catch as 482 of his 768 yards this year have happened after the ball was in his hands.
So it’s actually Brown who helps stretch the field, and this gives a player like Travis Kelce more room to operate. Kelce averages 9.3 yards per reception sharing the field with Brown compared to 6.5 when he’s been sidelined. This offense has gotten more complete, efficient, and dynamic since Brown entered the lineup and we’ll see if Andy Reid has any tricks up his sleeve for the Super Bowl.
On the other side of the ball, CB Jaylen Watson missed the last 11 games of the regular season with a broken leg but returned for the playoffs. It’s been a welcome return for the Chiefs’ defense. For the season he ranks 3rd in the entire league in completion % allowed (38.5%). Interestingly enough the team’s overall pressure percentage on QB’s jumps to 43%, up from 35%, when he’s on the field.
Not only has his presence improved the defense as a whole, but individually his running mate Trent McDuffie sees a bump in his performance as well. McDuffie gave up 5.7 yards per target when Watson wasn’t on the field, that goes down to only 3.6 when they’re on the field together. As Watson has gotten more reps under his belt during the playoffs coming off a serious injury, he’s getting more comfortable making an impact for this defense and making everyone around him better. We’ll see how well he and the whole unit can perform against the Eagles’ punishing offense.