Photo: Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

The Red Sox signing of Alex Bregman takes the most prominent remaining free agent position player off the board and sets up an intriguing scenario in Boston for 2025.

The Red Sox will not play Bregman at third base, where he won a Gold Glove last year, but will instead play him at second base, where he’s played 32 professional innings and none since 2018. The game will play a bit slower for Bregman, as being farther from home plate will give him more time to make plays. He’ll also need to be adept at turning the double play with a baserunner coming towards him or sliding into the base.

There actually aren’t a lot of great recent examples of a player making the third base to second base move with almost no second base experience (most players who have done this in the last 15 to 20 years had at least 40 prior games at the hot corner).

The best example we could find was Akinori Iwamura, who played third base full time for the Rays in 2007 then moved to second base in 2008. He went from -6 Runs Saved at third to 2 Runs Saved at second.

In 2012, Daniel Descalso played second base for the Cardinals with only 18 games experience there after playing most of the previous season at third base. He went from -6 Runs Saved at third base to 0 Runs Saved at second base.

Two examples doesn’t provide enough sample for any sort of prediction, though given Bregman’s skills, you’d expect him to be able to adapt to the position.

It is worth noting that we did a study for a presentation at the 2020 SABR Analytics Conference that found second base to be a slightly more difficult position on average. A player who plays both positions in the same year is on average measured as 2 runs per 1000 Innings better at third base.

Should the Red Sox eventually decide to play Bregman at third base, he’d represent a considerable defensive upgrade there. In the last four seasons, he’s totaled 9 Runs Saved there. Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers ranks tied for last at the position with -38 Runs Saved.

And speaking of upgrades …

Biggest Positive: A HUGE Upgrade Offensively

The move to sign Bregman and play him at second base was made more with offense in mind. Because of how poorly Red Sox second basemen hit last season, he’s more valuable to them than he would be to other teams.

Red Sox second basemen had a .533 OPS last season, the lowest OPS at the position by 60 points. In fact, the only position groups with lower OPS’ than Red Sox second basemen in 2024 were Marlins and White Sox catchers.

Lowest OPS – Second Basemen in 2024

Bregman’s .768 OPS in 2024 was a career low but still 18% better than MLB average (adjusting for ballpark). Only three teams got a higher OPS than that out of their second baseman. As a group second basemen had a .684 OPS last season. Only catchers (.678) had a lower OPS.

Bregman’s batting average and slugging percentage have been consistent the last three seasons. He’s hit .259, .262, and .260, and slugged .454, .441, and .453.

Red Flag: OBP Plummeted

The one red flag in Bregman’s game is that his on-base percentage dipped to .315 in 2024. It had been .350 or higher every year from 2017 to 2023.

He was a more willing swinger in 2024 than he was in any of the previous six seasons and his 26.5% chase rate was his highest of any season in his career other than his debut year, 2016.

Bregman struck out 86 times and walked only 44, a far cry from his 87 and 92 walks the previous two seasons in similar playing time (years in which he had more walks than strikeouts). Bregman’s walk rate dropped by nearly 6 percentage points from 2023, the biggest decline of any hitter in MLB.