We are officially one week away from the first official College Football Playoff rankings reveal and with only 3 undefeated teams in the current AP Poll Top 10, there is sure to be controversy swirling about the exact rankings. 

Last season, we introduced our College Football Playoff Prediction Model which outputs probabilities for conference championship games, bowl eligibility, playoff appearances, and playoff seeding. The engine behind the model is our game predictor model that utilizes our proprietary data (ie. Total Points) to predict the spreads and outcomes of each game.

Essentially, we are able to simulate the remainder of the season to find the most probable outcomes on which teams will participate in the postseason and in what capacity. As we get closer to the end of the season, the rankings have more weight when sorting out “tiebreaking” scenarios, as the committee ultimately has the final say.

Let’s look at the lay of the land heading into Week 9 and highlight some teams that have been on a roller coaster ride the last few weeks.

The Cream of the Crop

Notre Dame

Notre Dame sits atop the model’s odds to make the playoffs at 99% even after a heartbreaking loss to BYU two weeks ago. Even with one loss, the rest of the schedule sets up nicely for the Irish, who only face Miami and SMU as currently ranked opponents. Both of these matchups are at home, and a loss to Miami would still most likely keep them in the 12 team field.

The strength of the Irish has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a power conference 2nd-best 13.4 points per game. They have allowed the 2nd fewest yards on the ground and 12th-fewest passing yards in FBS.

CJ Carr is currently the 4th favorite to win the Heisman, but he has not been posting the gaudy numbers that usually go to the award winner. He ranks 28th in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) and 35th passing yards, but his ability to not take sacks and not throw interceptions (2 and 1, respectively) has kept an efficient Irish offense moving on all cylinders. All told, he ranks 6th in Passing Total Points per play.

UCLA

The team with the second-best probability is the upstart UCLA Bruins who have taken the Big Ten by storm in Bob Chesney’s first year at the helm. Even with starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava going down for the year with a left knee injury, the Bruins have been able to utilize a two-headed monster in Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods to pick up the slack on offense.

The Bruins lead the Big Ten in rushing Total Points with 53 and positive run rate at 56%. That is 22 Total Points higher than the next closest team in Indiana. Woods has been able to get it done after contact, ranking 6th in the nation in yards after contact per attempt at 4.3. Credit also belongs to the offensive line, who have accumulated the 7th highest run blocking Total Points so far this year and would be 4th if factoring out service academies.

The defense has been very stout, allowing an 11th-in-FBS 15.3 points per game. They are the FBS leaders in positive pass rate allowed at 30%, and they force a pass of -1 EPA per play or worse (bust percentage) at an FBS-best 29%. Cornerback Scooter Jackson has been the driving force, accumulating the 2nd most pass coverage Total Points among all defenders with 24, allowing the lowest QB rating when targeted at 9.3.

Our model has UCLA as 3 or more point favorites in 5 of their remaining 6 games as well as a slight favorite on the road against Michigan. Even accumulating 2 losses should keep them seated in the playoff picture, which is an incredible feat for a first year head coach.

Risers and Fallers

BYU

The BYU Cougars have been on a roller coaster ride over the last two weeks. After defeating then-2nd-ranked Notre Dame, the Cougars’ chances of making the CFP rose from 56% to 72%. That number came crashing back down to 41% this week after a devastating 31-39 overtime loss to UCF.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier faced easily the highest pressure rate he had all season at 34% while also accumulating easily the highest ADoT at 12.3. This makes it no surprise that his 41% on-target percentage was easily the worst all season. A usually potent rushing attack was also thwarted by UCF’s defense, as BYU posted a season-worst 3.2 yards per carry.

The Big 12 is currently in a logjam at the top and BYU has a pivotal matchup with Utah in two weeks. This is the only game left where our model has them as an underdog, but beating them will be pivotal in getting to the Big 12 Championship Game and ultimately the CFP.

SEC Beneficiaries (Alabama, Kentucky, LSU)

Alabama, Kentucky, and LSU all won rather convincingly in their matchups on Saturday and saw their probabilities increase. These large increases are also a result of Ole Miss, BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, and Tennessee losing their games. All of these teams are in that mid range tier, so these three gain the most from the losses of the others.

Both Alabama and LSU have already accumulated two losses and face each other in two weeks at Tiger Stadium. LSU also still has to play Texas and Tennessee while Alabama will be favored by double digits in the rest of their games. 

Kentucky under first year coach Will Stein has been the shock of the southeast by amassing a 7-1 record thus far and beating LSU. Three tough SEC tests remain for the upstart Wildcats in which our model believes that they will be favorites in only one of them. Also, the last game of the year is against in-state rival Louisville in what looks to be a classic toss-up rivalry game.

All of this to say that there is a real chance that 3-loss SEC teams may find their way in the dance, especially if these Big 12 teams end up at 2 losses. The CFP rankings will provide more insight next week on this theory and are also valuable to outputting the probabilities, so big shifts are potentially on the horizon.