This offseason marked the end of an era in Pittsburgh, but not quite a new beginning. Mike Tomlin resigned after 19 winning seasons to focus on the more fruitful pursuit of Minecraft, and native son Mike McCarthy took the reins in what figured to be little more than a Super Bowl XLV farewell tour. He and the persnickety Aaron Rodgers had not always had the most harmonious working relationship, and the 42-year-old had already begun moving around the field with the grace and speed of a Roomba long before the two were reunited in Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, it is already November, and a team that Vegas had pegged for 8 or 9 wins before the start of the season stands 6-2 atop the AFC North. The question is: can they hold?

Let’s start with the rudiments. The Ravens have been eliminated at 4-4. Lamar Jackson is going to injured reserve, backup Tyler Huntley is going to injured reserve, and the third string guy is an undrafted rookie from UConn, an NFL alumni base that has as many Pro Bowl seasons (2) as it does players named Dan Orlovsky or Tim Boyle (2). The Browns are 5-3 but have the fourth-worst passing offense in the league over the last month (-24 EPA) after a 3-1 start, and are 5-1 in one-score games against a pretty weak schedule. They’re not to be taken seriously. That leaves us with just the Bengals and the Steelers.

Let’s start with Pittsburgh’s run game. The Steelers are 3rd in EPA/attempt on running back carries this year (0.08), but what’s interesting is how they’ve been successful on the ground. This is a rushing attack which is using the designed gap at the lowest rate of any team in the last decade (47%), and is 2 YPC better on bounced runs than they are on runs that hit the designed gap – which would be the biggest delta of any unit since 2016 if it holds. It is not at the very top in any particular category; but it is between 4th and 11th in  Yards Before Contact/Attempt, 8th in Boom Rate (rate of plays with 1>= EPA), 11th in Positive Play Rate, and 7th in Bust Rate (rate of plays with -1 <= EPA). They’re just finding cutbacks and bounces that work, and making steady, respectable gains.

Steelers NFL Ranks

Rodgers has long been averse to play action from under center, but the Steelers have dialed it up 43 times this year, albeit to mediocre results (21st in success rate). They are 1st in RPO rate and 2nd in screen rate, which are sort of extensions of the running game, which contributes to an artificially deflated ADoT in the passing game. Rodgers ranks 28th in ADoT (7.2) but is a more respectable 18th if you strip out RPOs and screens (9.2). He still loves a screw-it heave and is second in the league in attempts of 20+ air yards, but he ranks worst in catchable rate on such throws.

Point being, there just isn’t the interplay between the passing game and the running game you’d like to see from an offense whose strong suit is running the ball, and Rodgers just isn’t the magician he used to be. He’s 17th in Independent Quarterback Rating (our adjusted version of Passer Rating that isolates factors within the passer’s control), 26th in Total Points/play, 26th in positive play rate, and 20% of his pressures turn into sacks (8th-worst). And without a more effective play action game, their sitting duck might be a bit of a concern moving forward.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers run defense is T-4th in EPA/play allowed, 3rd in positive play rate, 3rd in rushing Total Points saved/play, and 2nd in stuff rate. This is notable considering they have faced rushing attacks that rank 6th (Colts), 8th (Panthers), 11th (Buccaneers), and 12th (Falcons) in EPA/attempt, although the latter comes with an asterisk because Atlanta did not field a quarterback in Week 1.

On that note, the passing defense is more of a question mark. They’re 10th in EPA/play allowed, but the quarterbacks they’ve faced so far is a murderers’ row of stooges. They’ve farmed Cooper Rush, Jalon Daniels, Deshaun Watson (in Week 8 only), Daniel “Goddamn” Jones, and an uncharacteristically dysfunctional Drake Maye to the tune of -43 EPA, but have allowed over 0.2 EPA/play three times this year, namely to Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins, whom they will have to play again after the bye. 

A lot of their value is also coming off six picks, and they have a high sack rate (3rd) but a middling pressure rate (17th). That’s a red flag for regression, especially considering 17 of the team’s 25 sacks came against quarterbacks with abysmal pressure-to-sack ratios in Cooper Rush (38%), Deshaun Watson (26%), and Jalon Daniels (23%). Both Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson are plus blitzers, but they have just one defensive lineman who has a positive pressure rate +/- in 37-year-old Cameron Heyward.

They’ve already beaten the Bengals once, but conventional analytical wisdom would suggest to favor the team with a high-volume, high-efficiency passing attack with pterodactyl receivers over the smashmouth team with a hermit at quarterback. There have been only five offenses that had a 55-plus percent positive passing play rate in the SIS era (2016-present). The Steelers and 49ers could join that list this year and the Steelers are 3rd in net passing EPA, and 4th in bust rate. Meanwhile, their defense has slid backwards and is 31st in rushing EPA/play allowed over the last four weeks. 

A win would be huge for the Steelers, but this one game will not decide the division. And it does feel like a stylistic clash of unstoppable forces meeting movable objects, in different ways. But, if we believe that passing and stopping the pass is key, that would tell us we should probably favor the Bengals down the stretch, all things being equal. 

But not all things are equal; Pittsburgh’s schedule seems a bit easier the rest of the way, and they have a week off before they play Cincinnati. I’m still not sure I buy that this is the year they’ll break their drought of playoff wins, but this is the most fun the Steelers have been in awhile, and even if that’s not good enough for their fans, it’s good enough for NFL fans.