Category: Football

Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Steelers No. 1 and the Patriots No. 2 because they were most confident in the Steelers being over their 8.5 win projection and the Patriots being under their 7.5 win projection.

The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

Team	Over/Under (Model)	Team	Over/Under (Model)
Steelers	8.5 (Over)	9. Titans	7.5 (Under)
2. Patriots	7.5 (Under)	10. Jaguars	9.5 (Under)
3. Chiefs	11.5 (Over)	11. Texans	6.5 (Under)
4. Raiders	6.5 (Over)	12. Dolphins	9.5 (Over)
5. Jets	9.5 (Under)	13. Ravens	9.5 (Over)
6. Broncos	8.5 (Under)	14. Colts	6.5 (Under)
7. Chargers	9.5 (Over)	15. Bengals	11.5 (Over)
8. Bills	10.5 (Over)	16. Browns	9.5 (Over)

Steelers – Over 8.5 (Model = 10.5)

Matt (over): The line that we were given was 8.5. The model projects them for 10.5. A lot of my methodology was where did my intuition match the largest differences that our model presented. And this was one of those spots.

Bryce: Does the model know Kenny Pickett is the quarterback?

Matt: The model sees everything.

The TJ Watt injury affected their performance during the season last year, but the model just looks at the depth chart and says, who are the players who are going to get the most snaps and who’s going to make the most impact? And if we expect him to play a full season, that’s a pretty big impact on the defense. It’s not like we’re betting on Kenny Pickett advancing as a passer.

James: And the schedule’s pretty easy. They play the NFC West and the AFC South this year. The team-level metrics go back on a 7-game weighted rolling average. So, the last 7 games for the Steelers last year resulted in a 6-1 record in taking care of some of their opponents in their division and gaining momentum into the season. So you’ll see that with this team and as well as a few other teams, that a good end of 2022 translates to a potentially higher win total in 2023

Patriots – Under 7.5 (Model = 4.5)

Alex (under): So I am #trustingtheprocess and taking the New England Patriots under 7.5. Idiot. James is shaking his head and he’s responsible for my decision here.

I don’t necessarily believe that they would get three games under, but having some amount under I would believe in terms of division competition. The division got better with Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets. I think the Dolphins are risky because of Tua, and he’s one injury away from that team looking totally different. The Bills are pretty solid, obviously. So I’d be nervous about betting (the Patriots).

And so the competition in the division is tough. And the team has made a lot of lateral moves the last couple of years. And really, I don’t necessarily see Mac Jones taking a big step forward with the rest of the offense around him.

James: I was shaking my head in disgust because they were going to be my first pick. Their schedule is brutal and I don’t know how much I consider Bill O’Brien an upgrade at offensive coordinator.

Chiefs – Over 11.5 (Model = 12.5)

Bryce (over): This one’s easy. I’m taking Chiefs over 11.5

Matt: That’s a great pick as long as Mahomes doesn’t get injured.

Bryce: The model had them at 12.5, so one win over what the Vegas total is. I don’t have any really intricate reasoning for this beyond they have Patrick Mahomes, and that James’ betting model thinks they’re actually a win better than the Vegas total would suggest. It’s hard to see them losing six games with Patrick.

Alex: Yeah, I don’t think we need to belabor that point too much.

Raiders – Under 6.5 (Model = 8)

** We went against the model here**

James (Under): This has already seen some sentiment in the market, being bet down from 7.5 at -181 to 6.5 -135 at Pinnacle.

I just can’t trust any of the moves they made in the offseason. Bringing in Jimmy G. I don’t know if, like, they’re trying to stand in limbo. And I just don’t trust McDaniel as the coach.

Matt: This is one I was back and forth on. I probably would have gone over mostly because of the model. And because 6.5 isn’t a lot, but it’s hard to be inspired about where the Raiders are right now.

Jets – Under 9.5 (Model = 7)

James (under): This was the model’s second-biggest discrepancy. We have them around 7 wins.

Obviously the finish to last year is a reason why the model brought down; scoring 6, 6 and 3 points in your last three doesn’t exactly scream competence.

Aaron Rodgers, obviously, he can scare you. He can scare you by being a Top 3-5 quarterback in this league. And he can scare you by not wanting to play football anymore. And from last year playing in Green Bay, he wasn’t as great.

Matt: The counterpoint is that the model is taking into account that the Jets stunk at the end of last year, but it is also taking into account that they have Aaron Rodgers performing at basically last year’s level, correct, which is not top quarterback in the league, but it was sort of good.

Broncos – Under 8.5 (Model = 6.5)

Bryce (under): They were what, like a 5-win team last year? I get that Sean Payton’s in the building now. You no longer have a circus clown running the show. That’s probably good for at least a win. Their off season moves… Well, first of all, they didn’t have a first-round pick, so there’s not a lot of immediate impact talent coming through in the draft because they gave up so much for Russell Wilson, who I’m famously not a believer in.

I think the offensive line got a little bit better, but I think that Wilson neutralizes a lot of the opportunity for those guys to make an impact in pass protection.

I don’t see this team being four wins better than what they were last year. Even with Payton on board, I can’t get behind Russell Wilson.

Chargers – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

Alex (over): I feel nervous because they’re the Chargers and something always goes wrong. But we talked last week about where Herbert stands in terms of the pantheon of current quarterbacks; and the skill position players are good; the offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but looks all right at this point in time.

The defense has some interesting players and some guys that you’re not sure what to get, but just a change in coaching philosophy and a division that’s maybe a little bit has, as I mentioned before, like the division could be very good, but also does definitely have some vulnerability to it.

At the end of the day, I’m sort of banking on Herbert being the quarterback that he has shown to be at least capable of in stretches.

Bills – Over 10.5 (Model = 13)

Matt (over): I feel really good about betting on the Bills to go at least 11-6.

There is a scenario I think this year where things really sort of fall apart in Buffalo. I just think it’s not a likely scenario. And so, like, maybe there’s some really bad cases for them, I just think that more of the cases end up with 11 wins or more, than the bad cases. So I like the over here a lot, the model likes the over here a lot at 13.

I’m sort of concerned about whatever’s been going on with Stefon Diggs and how that figures into everything. But I’m mostly encouraged. I think they’re a well-run team, a smart team, well-coached, well-managed and I’m expecting a bit more balance and diversification of the offense this year.

Titans – Under 7.5 (Model = 6.5)

Matt (under): Their line was 7.5, our model projects them for 6.5. And our model nailed it.

They’ve got 16 quarterbacks on the roster. They all stink. I don’t care that they signed an old receiver to try to make up for their past sins.

They’ll try hard, which is like the worst thing about this. And they’ve hit this number before, but I think they stink and I’m happy to take the under on them.

Alex: Yeah, the Titans have been teetering on dropping out into irrelevance, and Derrick Henry has sustained production that I think a lot of people were not assuming would happen. And he’s the exception to the rule of being able to drive team-level production with running back production.

Jaguars – Over 9.5 (Model = 9)

Alex (over): As Matt so eloquently pointed out – the Titans: not good. The Texans: not good. The Colts: I guess we don’t really know, but probably not great. And so that drives a lot of it, but also just the Trevor Lawrence advancement year-over-year.

The defense has some guys on it. I don’t know if I expect them to do a ton in the playoffs, but I expect that given the situation they find themselves in that they’re going to have a pretty strong regular season.

Texans – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 6)

Bryce (under): They were a three-win team last year. They added quite a bit of talent this year, but it’s young talent.

Matt (over): I do like their secondary.

Bryce (under): Yeah. I think Stingley is going to be great. Desmond King’s an underrated player. I like Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre. I’m a little bit concerned about their front six. I like Stroud going forward, but I don’t know if he’s going to an amazing Year 1 player. I just have a hard time seeing them being four wins better than last year.

Matt (over): Well, all they got to do is steal some games against the other crappy teams in their division. I think that the division’s terrible. I think that the young players that they brought on should be able to help them relatively quickly.

I talked about how I like their secondary. I think they finally have some better management in the building there and so I’m bullish on them. I think they can keep games close on the strength of their secondary and what Demeco Ryans can cook up front. Offensively, it’ll be a slog, but I’m really betting on them having the schedule that can help get them there and just the fact that they’re still going to be trying to win games late in the year when other teams might have otherwise laid down.

Dolphins – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

James (over): If the Patriots aren’t gonna win games, the Jets aren’t gonna win games, and the Bills are gonna win the amount of games that they should win, that means the Miami Dolphins are gonna win a lot of games in that division.

I think bringing in Vic Fangio was a huge get for them, as well as bringing in Jalen Ramsey to solidify the defense. You have Jalen Phillips, who took a step forward last year, with Bradley Chubb there as well on the D line. And the Dolphins offense, obviously a lot of it comes down to Tua’s health. But, if they stay healthy, the Miami Dolphins can very much go over a win total of 9.5

Bryce: I think Tua is mid, but there’s a ton of talent everywhere else on this team, and I think the coaching on the offensive side of the ball is phenomenal, so I don’t think it’ll matter whether or not Tua himself is a world beater.

Ravens – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

James (over): With the Ravens, it obviously, as it has the past two or three years after his MVP season, comes down to Lamar. Can he stay healthy and take a step forward in this offense?

Obviously this division is no joke, I already talked about the Steelers and then the Bengals and Browns are bona fide teams that can push for playoffs and if things go right, play for a Super Bowl. Luckily, with the division, with the schedule breakdown, just like how the Steelers get the NFC West and the AFC South, the Ravens also get the AFC South and the NFC West.

Colts – Under 6.5 (Model = 5)

Bryce (under): Our model’s got them at five. I myself am a bit skeptical of them, particularly that secondary. I’m a believer in Anthony Richardson long term. I think there’s potential for Year 1 to look kind of ugly for him.

I know it’s a weak division. They might steal some games. I don’t know. Quarterback is such a driving force and Richardson is definitely not the most polished coming out of school. I think it’s hard for them to get seven wins. I think they’re going to get passed on, and I don’t know how well they’re going to be able to pass.

Matt: I have no idea what to think of that team this year. I thought they had a nice draft. I think they’re kind of in a rebuilding mode. I think that Richardson is less of a project than people think he is, but still a great project.

Bengals – Under 11.5 (Model = 12)

Alex (under, despite the model projecting over): I acknowledge that the team is good and that I don’t expect them to tank relative to expectations. We just talked about the Steelers potentially being an over candidate; the Ravens being an over candidate; Browns, who knows what to expect with Deshaun Watson, but theoretically could pick things up after last year. So the schedule might be kind of tough.

I’m still not entirely sure that the way that Joe Burrow plays quarterback is conducive to consistent success because of the sacks and that kind of stuff. And there’s still a little bit of uncertainty about what that offensive line is going to look like. And the defense has kind of been picked apart a little bit.

I still think they’ll be good, but I’m not sure if they’ve sort of hit their ceiling already

Matt: I’ll take it further. I love the Bills over 10.5. If you had set them at 11.5, I don’t love it. The Bengals were set at 11.5. But if you switched them, I get just as excited to take the over on the Bengals.

August 10, 2023

Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Vikings No. 1 and the Eagles No. 2 because they were most confident in the Vikings being under their 8.5 win projection and the Eagles being over their 10.5 win projection.

The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

Team	Over/Under (Model)	Team	Over/Under (Model)
1. Vikings	8.5 (Under)	9. Panthers	7.5 (Over)
2. Eagles	10.5 (Over)	10. 49ers	11.5 (Over)
3. Giants	8.5 (Under)	11. Saints	9.5 (Over)
4. Lions	9.5 (Over)	12. Rams	6.5 (Under)
5. Bears	7.5 (Under)	13. Cardinals	4.5 (Under)
6. Buccaneers	6.5 (Under)	14. Commanders	6.5 (Either*)
7. Packers	7.5 (Under)	15. Cowboys	9.5 (Over**)
8. Falcons	8.5 (Over)	16. Seahawks	8.5 (Avoid***)

* Panel was split on which to take though model projected “Under”

** Computer model projected “Over” but all panelists disagreed

*** Model projected “Under” but panelists agreed this is a tough team to project

Vikings – Under 8.5 wins (Model = 6 wins)

James: It’s pretty chalky considering what everyone thought of the Vikings at the end of last year and their line reflects the thought that their record last year was somewhat of a fluke. They were 19th in offensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive EPA per play and 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games.

Alex: Their floor is high. Six wins might be on the lower end of their range of outcomes but we’d say that to repeat what they did last year would be within their range of outcomes, but at the very high end.

Eagles – Over 10.5 (Model = 14.5)

Bryce: Our model has them with a win total of 14.5, which is probably a little high but this is a really talented team. Ten and a half seems super low with all the talent on their roster. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL, especially if Jalen Hurts continues on his upward trajectory.

Alex: The 10.5 is a reflection of a team that shows up and looks like a world beater for one season, so I buy the skepticism (of it only being 10.5). There’s a lot of theoretical uncertainty but the organization is pretty stable. It’s hard to think of ways they don’t get there with their roster.

Giants – Under 8.5 (Model = 8)

Alex: Our model has them just under 8 wins. It’s the same story as the Vikings. The Giants were all about running it back. Mostly, this is just a bet against Daniel Jones. He didn’t have the kind of improvement this past year that Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen had. We’re not talking about that level jump that some people might think of. They weren’t lucky the way the Vikings were lucky, but they’re due for the same level regression.

Lions – Over 9.5 (Model = 13)

Matt: The model has them for 13 wins, which I’m trying to wrap my head around, but the over under set at 9.5 and I like the over.

Bryce: I think that’s a very risky proposition. This isn’t a situation like the 49ers, where basically every spot on the roster is better than positional average, except quarterback. Jared Goff is probably a little bit better than a Brock Purdy, but we’ve done this song and dance before.

Alex: I think Bryce is arguing that Jared Goff has within his range of outcomes to be good enough to lead a double-digit win team. But it might not be something that he would choose as his expectation.

Bryce: Yeah, I also think within that range of outcomes, he could be a complete dumpster fire.

Bears – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

Matt: Their line is 7.5. That seems unbelievably high to me. Our model has them at 5.5. That sounds more accurate. Another easy pick.

Alex: You’re out on Justin Fields, huh?

Matt: I didn’t say that. I’m out on his team. I’m not out on him.

James: Did this team do anything in the offseason to get better? Yeah, they got a DJ Moore, but I don’t know defensively. This team still isn’t great. I think it’s asking a lot for a four-win bump from what they were last year.

Buccaneers – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

Alex: The division is not awesome, but I’m a little higher on the other teams in the NFC South. I think there’s a pretty high probability that the Bucs are the worst team in that division, and there’s enough range of outcomes for the other teams in the NFC South where a couple of them are actually kind of good that I think that’ll contribute a little bit. But it’s mostly just, like, the quarterback situation drops off a cliff and everybody else is just kind of a year older.

Packers – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

Bryce: Rodgers is obviously gone, but he’s so far gone. As great as he was, he was so far gone last year and we have no idea what Jordan Love is.

The defense is weird because they have some really talented players at some really key positions, like Jaire Alexander and Rashawn Gary, but there’s a lot of holes in that defense in general. (They were) an eight-win team last year with Rodgers, and things don’t be seem to be getting better there.

James: I think this is a team where you can absolutely look alt win totals. If you think that the drop off is a lot, then you can take an under 4.5, under 5.5 at a better number. If you think Love can take off, then bet higher than 9 wins. I think the extreme outcomes for this team are the better value.

Falcons – Over 8.5 (Model = 9.5)

James: You have no idea what Desmond Ritter is. Defensively, though, this team’s putting some things together…. I kind of like the upside with this team, the division’s in flux, like the whole NFC is. Theme of the day.

Matt: My concern is the defense. I think the defense is trash. I have concerns about their strength being at safety. I don’t really know how you build a defense that way. I think that they have weaknesses at corner, in pass rush, and in run defense. So it’s hard to say that I find them to be very strong in defense in any meaningful regard.

Panthers – Over 7.5 (Model = 9.5)

James: I like the coaching staff that the Panthers brought in with Frank Reich and Josh McCown, and Ejiro Evero is a really good get…. I think bringing him in with having guys like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn coming back from injury, this Panthers defense – last year 20th in EPA per play on defense – it’s not great, but I think they’re certainly upside there with the new scheme that Evero brings in.

Now obviously it’s not one of those rookie quarterback situations where you frankly just don’t know. But I think there’s a lot of good things in place that the Panthers could potentially get over this win total, especially with that division that they’re in.

Alex: I wish I liked their offense better. I think trading out DJ Moore for Adam Thielen is not inspiring a lot of confidence.

Bryce: I absolutely hate it. I’m not a believer in Bryce Young at all.

49ers – Over 11.5 (Model = 12)

Bryce: I don’t like betting on bad and or inconsistent quarterbacks, and the 49ers, I think, don’t even have their quarterback situation figured out this year, but that team is so talented. The defense is really, really good. Their offensive skill positions are really good.

They won 13 games last year, Brock Purdy starting in five of them. I’m not sure how much the quarterback situation even matters at this point. With Kyle Shanahan, plus the division is not very good. I’ll take it over 11.5, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

Saints – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

Alex: Again, the NFC South has a lot of uncertainty…. I feel probably the best about them in the division.

This is another team where I don’t expect them to win 12 games, but I think that they have decent quarterback play and pretty good skill position players.

I’m responsible for Total Points, and Total Points loves Derek Carr. Ipso facto, I love Derek Carr. Also, “love” is a very strong word.

Rams – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

Matt: Aaron Donald represents one of the only bright spots remaining on their defense. I look at the Sonar Depth Chart that we have for them at The 33rd Team, and it’s really trash all around. The offensive line was garbage last year. I think the offensive line promises to be garbage again.

They tried to trade Stafford because he’s a shell of himself and is no longer a healthy, functioning NFL quarterback. So, for a lot of reasons I want the under on the Rams.

Bryce: I’m going to get you a shirt that says, “I am not scared of Aaron Donald.”

Cardinals – Under 4.5 (Model = 4)

Matt: Number one, pull up their depth chart. It is really, really ugly looking at a lot of positions. But even more so than that, I’m worried about this franchise.

I think this franchise has already reached rock bottom and they’re in the phase over the next year where they can’t even begin to climb out of rock bottom. I think that the sort of malice that’s gone on in this franchise is on that level.

Unlike the way that I like the over on the Texans wins because they don’t have to tank, I think this team is organizationally tanking this year.

Commanders – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 5)

Alex (under): The Commanders have a couple of guys on both sides of the ball. And their quarterback situation is not great. And the Commanders are in that same category as the Panthers. It’s just that they have less upside, in my opinion.

I tend to lean towards whatever the quarterback situation is and kind of trust that. And so that’s why I’m on the low end for the Commanders.

Bryce: I would feel a bit worse about taking the Commanders under if I had any confidence that they would name Jacoby Brissett the starter, because I think Brissett is actually somewhat capable, whereas I think Sam Howell will be a dumpster fire.

James (over): I want to call out all of you Sam Howell haters, because I like the Commanders over this year. That defense last year was still 5th in EPA per play. And if they can do something with Taylor Heinicke the last three years and have a minimum 7 wins from each season, I like this team.

I like the weapons that they have. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, both a solid 1-2 punch at receiver.

Brian Robinson came into his own at the end of last year, as well. It’s a new day in Washington. It’s a new day, and I think they break through the 6.5 wins this year.

Cowboys – Over 9.5 (Model = 8)

Bryce: I am an outspoken believer in Dak Prescott. I think they have strengths elsewhere on the roster. I really like CeeDee Lamb. The offensive line is not as dominant as they were during the first couple of years of Dak’s career, but they’re still pretty good. I think they have some difference-makers on defense.

Matt: I had a really hard time with them because that over/under was set at 9.5. And the model came out at just eight wins for them. So this was one of those situations where I was kind of a ‘stay away.’

James: When our model was run, this win total was definitely the one that I disagreed with the most. I was really surprised that it came out that low on the Cowboys.

Seahawks – No bet at 8.5 (Model = 7)

James: I’d kind of lean towards their over, mostly because of the fact that the NFC is garbage, and in terms of a staple, this is probably as close as it gets to a fringe, playoff, wildcard level team.

In the NFC West, we’re pretty low on the Rams and the Cardinals. The 49ers have some question marks at quarterback. For the Seahawks, if somehow Geno Smith can turn into a Top 10 quarterback again, then they certainly have the weapons there. I think I can see ‘Hawks going over this win total.

Matt: Playing the Rams a couple of times, playing the Cardinals a couple of times, if Geno can be as good as he was last year, certainly you would think that they hit it.

August 8, 2023

When A Sack Isn’t A Sack (Revisited)

A quarterback drops back to pass, gets tackled, and fumbles the ball. The average football fan calls this a sack, but depending on what happens to the ball after the fumble, it may not be.

Jalen Carter experienced this firsthand last year.

The official NCAA rulebook has two scenarios where this is not a sack, and in one case, not even a tackle for loss. From Section 16, Articles 8-9, including Clarification:

“A.R. 8. Adams is back to pass, but has the ball stripped from his grasp before his arm starts going forward by Benson, causing a fumble. The ball is then recovered behind the line of scrimmage by Allen, who attempts to gain positive yardage before being tackled by Baker, still behind the line of scrimmage. Credit Benson with a forced fumble only. Credit Baker with a solo tackle and a solo tackle for loss for the yards lost to the final spot. Charge Adams with a rush attempt and minus yards rushing to the final spot. Charge Team A with a fumble not lost. Allen is not credited with any statistics on this play.

A.R. 9. Adams is back to pass, but has the ball stripped from his grasp before his arm starts going forward by Benson, causing a fumble. The ball is then recovered behind the line of scrimmage by Allen, who gains positive yardage before being tackled by Baker beyond the line of scrimmage. Credit Benson with a forced fumble only. Credit Baker with a solo tackle. Charge Adams with a rush attempt for zero yards. Credit Allen with no rush but with the yards gained from the line of scrimmage under “Rushing.” Credit Team A with a fumble not lost.”

Clarification: For plays that end either on the line of scrimmage or beyond, there is no pass sack credited, but rather it is considered a rushing play. There can be no pass sack (or tackle for loss) without loss of yardage.

In Article 8, the QB drops back to pass, a defender forces a fumble, and an offensive player picks it up and tries to advance the ball. The offensive player tackled behind the line of scrimmage (LOS), and the defender doesn’t get credit for a sack. In Article 9, same scenario, but the fumbled ball is advanced past the LOS, and no sack is credited to the defender. The Clarification expands in a concise way by stating that a play that ends with a 0 or positive yard gain can’t be credited as a sack. The NFL would credit the defender with a sack in both of these scenarios, but not the NCAA.

The NCAA tries to assign every single yard in a game to a specific player, while the NFL allows for “phantom” yards to exist when a player shouldn’t be given credit. Example: Derrick Henry rushes for 5 yards, fumbles the ball 3 yards forward before a defender recovers it. Derrick Henry of Alabama would get 8 rushing yards because the ball is picked up 8 yards downfield, while Derrick Henry of the Titans would get 5 yards with the 3 yards the ball bounced assigned to nobody.

The fumble yardage rules come into play in almost every single game in college football (often multiple times), but how often do Articles 8 and 9 come into play? During the 2022 FBS season, 25 times. Below are a handful of examples of plays that are not officially sacks.

Clarification – The Colorado State QB fumbles the ball, and it goes 3 yards past the LOS. The QB actually gets +3 rushing yards on this play.

Clarification – The Utah State QB fumbles the ball, and it goes 1 yard past the LOS. The QB actually gets +1 rushing yard on this play.

Article 9 – The Tennessee QB fumbles the ball, and it is picked up by an offensive player who tries (and does) to advance it. The defender still gets a TFL, but not a sack.

Article 8 – The Tennessee QB fumbles the ball, and it is picked up by an offensive player who tries to advance it. The improper spotting of the ball (should’ve been a safety) means the player actually did advance the ball. The defender gets a TFL, but not a sack.

First off, I am in favor of every one of those plays being credited as sacks, but by the official NCAA rules, they are not. Secondly, the NCAA doesn’t count team-tracked statistics as official statistics so a play by play (PBP) on a team’s website crediting it as a sack, doesn’t mean it is a sack. College PBPs have errors in them (a truly painstaking process on our end to try to get things right) as they are done live, sometimes by inexperienced people, where mistakes are made. To make it even worse, college refs aren’t perfect and make mistakes as well (see the ball spotting error on the Jalen Carter non-sack), and once the refs place the ball, it is an official placement.

While this happened only 25 times last season, it is still noteworthy as sacks are such a crucial, and often-referenced stat to make a case for a player’s ability or, further down the road, a case for their team’s Ring of Honor or the Hall of Fame. It really comes down to common sense. When you watch those plays, they look like a sack and act like a sack, and they should be tracked as a sack.

There are other differences on sacks between the NCAA and NFL that are noteworthy. If the QB drops back to pass, scrambles, and is tackled for a 0-yard gain, the NCAA doesn’t credit that as a sack, since there isn’t a loss of yardage, while the NFL does credit a sack.

How many 0-yard scrambles could there be in college? During the 2022 FBS season, there were 328. If the ball is spotted behind the LOS in college, but not enough for a full-yard, it is credited as a 0-yard scramble, meaning a defender loses a sack by a matter of inches.

I am of the opinion that the NCAA should adapt those two rules and track those plays like the NFL, but there is one scenario that the NCAA tracks sacks better than the NFL, intentional grounding calls.

When a QB is called for intentional grounding, the ball is usually placed at the spot of the foul (minor exceptions occur), but in the NCAA, the defender who forces the QB to get rid of the ball (or closest defender to him) gets credit for a sack with a loss of yards to the spot of the foul coupled with a 0-yard penalty that results in a loss of down. The NFL doesn’t credit a defender with a sack, but instead assigns the yards as penalty yards.

This means that NFL QBs can short sack totals by simply getting rid of the ball at the last moment and taking the credit away from the defender. In the eyes of nearly every defensive coach, getting an intentional grounding call is essentially a sack as it moves the offense back the same yards and results in a loss of down. Defenders don’t receive the statistical credit in the NFL on these plays however and as stated early, stats such as sacks are often used to determine a player’s value down the line.

At the end of the day, neither league has a perfect stat-tracking system, and maybe to the average fan, they don’t care, but to the people who track these stats and to the players who obtain them, it matters. A few simple rule changes could greatly improve the way sacks are tracked and how a better description of what actually happened on a play. So for those of you that are wondering why we have Jalen Carter with one sack less than the “general consensus,” now you know why.

August 7, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason All-American Team

Photos: John Cordes (Ford), Michael Allio (Newton), Michael Wade (Harrison), Jeffrey Vest (Bowers)

Now that all of our Preseason All-Conference teams have been announced, it’s time to announce our overall SIS Preseason All-American Team. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our selections.

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

20 teams are represented in our selections, with 5 schools having multiple players honored. Here are our choices:

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Caleb Williams	USC
RB	Blake Corum	Michigan
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	Ohio State
WR	Emeka Egbuka	Ohio State
TE	Brock Bowers	Georgia
FLEX	Quinshon Judkins	Ole Miss
OT	Joe Alt	Notre Dame
OT	Will Campbell	LSU
OG	Zak Zinter	Michigan
OG	Cooper Beebe	Kansas State
OC	Sincere Haynesworth	Tulane

QB – Caleb Williams, USC

Caleb Williams needs little introduction. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner led the entire country with 240 Total Points and just over 0.25 Points per Snap in 2022. He can do it all, as his 195 Passer Points and 45 Rusher Points both ranked 2nd in FBS.

RB – Blake Corum, Michigan

Corum was one of the most effective runners in the country last season, earning the 4th-most Rushing Total Points in the FBS. Michigan was very productive as a team when he carried the ball, earning more EPA on his rushes (48) than any other ballcarrier in the country.

WR – Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Harrison leads a 1-2 punch at WR for Ohio State heading into 2023. His Yards per Route Run (3.3), Yards per Game (97.2), Receiver Rating (135.9), and First Down Rate (79.2%) all ranked Top 10 in FBS in 2022 among players with 75 targets, and he’s looking for a repeat performance with a new QB this season.

WR – Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

The 2nd head of the two-headed receiving monster at Ohio State is Egbuka. While his teammate may get more hype, Egbuka is fantastic in his own right. He finished last season with a 130.5 Receiver Rating; Top-10 in the FBS (minimum 70 targets).

TE – Brock Bowers, Georgia

Bowers’ 54 Total Points in 2022 far and away leads all returning TEs heading into 2023. His 3.0 Yards per Route Run, 10.8 Yards per Target, and 134.4 Receiver Rating also led all TEs with at least 50 targets in 2022.

FLEX – Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss

Judkins exploded on the scene as a true freshman to become one of the biggest weapons in the country. He leads all returning RBs with 56 Total Points last season, and will be looking to build on his 1,700 scrimmage yards from last season.

OT – Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Joe Alt earned the 2nd-most Total Points among FBS tackles last season with 45, and could easily lead the season with a more potent offense. He had a 0.7% Blown Block Rate, including just a 0.2% on Run Blocks.

OT – Will Campbell, LSU

Campbell’s 41 Total Points ranks 2nd among all returning OTs and his 0.048 Total Points per Snap ranked 8th in 2022. As a true freshman, he only committed 10 blown blocks in 838 snaps, none as a run blocker.

OG – Zak Zinter, Michigan

Fresh off back-to-back Joe Moore Awards, Zinter will be key in search for a three-peat. His 44 Total Points last season were 2nd in the FBS among guards, helped by his lowly 0.8% Blown Block Rate.

OG – Cooper Beebe, Kansas State

An incredibly efficient and fundamental blocker, Beebe’s 43 Total Points ranks 2nd among returning OGs, and his 4 blown blocks last year was solo-best in the country among any linemen seeing at least 500 snaps.

OC – Sincere Haynesworth, Tulane

Haynesworth was a major reason for Tulane’s incredible season last year, finishing 4th among FBS centers with 38 Total Points. He was remarkably consistent, finishing with a sub-1% Blown Block Rate as both a pass blocker and as a run blocker.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Jer’Zhan Newton	Illinois
DT	Mekhi Wingo	LSU
EDGE	Owen Porter	Marshall
EDGE	Harold Perkins Jr.	LSU
LB	Jaylan Ford	Texas
LB	Cedric Gray	North Carolina
CB	Aydan White	NC State
CB	Dwight McGlothern	Arkansas
S	Cole Bishop	Utah
S	Calen Bullock	USC
FLEX	Kool-Aid McKinstry	Alabama

DT – Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

An absolute monster last season, Newton led all DTs in Total Points with 54 last season. He led the Big Ten in pressures with a whopping 45 and was the only Big Ten defender to have at least 400 pass rushing snaps, showing extraordinary stamina.

DT – Mekhi Wingo, LSU

The LSU front-seven could be monstrous in 2023, and Wingo should help lead the way. He ranked Top 10 in FBS in both Pass Rush Total Points (18) and Run Defense Total Points (22).

ED – Owen Porter, Marshall

To people unfamiliar with Porter, this may be a surprise, but he had a great season last year. He has by far the most returning Total Points among defensive ends; the difference between 1st and 2nd is equivalent to the distance between 2nd and 12th. That he had 41 Pressures, 9.5 Sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT, and 15 TFLs shows it’s hard to ignore the base stats as well.

ED – Harold Perkins Jr., LSU

Another breakout true freshman for the Tigers, Perkins made his presence felt right away in 2022 by accounting for 8.5 sacks, 34 pressures, and a 22.2% Pressure Rate, which ranked 13th among all DE/LBs with at least 10 pressures.

LB – Jaylan Ford, Texas

Jaylan Ford tied for the lead among LBs in Total Points (62), and his ability per-snap put him over the top. He finished Top-10 in Total Points per Snap among LBs last season.

LB – Cedric Gray, North Carolina

Gray, a 2022 First Team All-SIS selection, tied Ford for the lead in Total Points (62) among all LBs in 2022, ranking Top 10 against both the pass (34) and run (28).

CB – Aydan White, NC State

White was very good in bulk and on a per snap basis in 2022. His 81 Total Points lead all returning defenders in FBS, with 72 of them coming against the pass. He accounted for 4 interceptions, 9 passes defensed, and a 20.4 Passer Rating Against, which sat 2nd among CBs with at least 50 targets defended to only Devon Witherspoon . Additionally, his 0.11 Total Points per Snap ranked 3rd among all CBs last year.

CB – Dwight McGlothern, Arkansas

McGlothern has the 2nd-most Total Points among returning FBS defenders with 74. He finished last season with 4 INTs, another 11 Passes Defensed, and a Completion% against of just 42.3% which resulted in a QBR Against of just 37.2.

S – Cole Bishop, Utah

Cole Bishop finished last season Top-5 among FBS safeties in Total Points with 61, and is the top returning safety in the same category. A well-rounded safety, Bishop allowed just 0.3 Yards per Coverage Snap in addition to leading his team in Run Defense Total Points.

S – Calen Bullock, USC

Bullock accounted for 5 picks and 9 pass defenses in 2022 on his way to accumulating 46 Pass Defense Total Points, best among FBS safeties. His 25.5 Points Above Average ranked 2nd in the country among safeties with 10 targets and his Boom Rate of just 14.3% ranked 8th.

FLEX – Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

Kool-Aid not only has a cool name, but he’s also an exceptional football player. His Passer Rating Against (36.4), Yards per Cover Snap (0.5), Completion Rate Against (36.4%), and Deserved Catch Rate Against (59.6%) all ranked Top 10 among CBs with at least 50 targets in 2022.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Joshua Karty	Stanford
P	Jack Browning	San Diego State
Returner	Lideatrick Griffin	Mississippi State

K – Joshua Karty, Stanford

Hard to argue with perfection. Karty went 18/18 on FGs last season including a ridiculous 13/13 on 40+ yarders. Just missing perfection on XPs (24/25) doesn’t take away from his fabulous season.

P – Jack Browning, San Diego State

Browning is a versatile special-teamer who can punt, kick field goals, and kickoff. His 21 Punting Total Points is tied-3rd among returning punters, but his 34 Total Points overall are best among all special teamers. He was Top 25 in 2022 in Punt Average (45.4) and Net Average (42.6), but was Top 10 in Punts Inside the 20 (27) and the 10 (14).

Returner – Lideatrick Griffin, Mississippi State

An absolute weapon in the return game plays for the Bulldogs. Griffin had an absurd 32.3 yard kickoff return average last season. That led FBS returners (minimum 10 returns), and he took one 92 yards to the house for good measure.

July 31, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason All-Independent Team

Photo: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

As we approach the beginning of the 2023 college football season, we want to highlight some of the top players in each conference by announcing our SIS Preseason All-Conference teams. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our selections.

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Sam Hartman	Notre Dame
RB	Audric Estime	Notre Dame
WR	Isaiah Alston	Army
WR	Jayden Thomas	Notre Dame
TE	Joshua Lingenfelter	Army
FLEX	Ay’Juan Marshall	Army
OT	Joe Alt	Notre Dame
OT	Blake Fisher	Notre Dame
OG	Connor Finucane	Army
OG	Christian Haynes	UConn
OC	Zeke Correll	Notre Dame

The offense is dominated by Notre Dame and Army players with very few schools remaining independent. Sam Hartman transferred from Wake Forest to Notre Dame in the offseason, and he should provide an immediate boost down the field after leading the ACC with an Avg Throw Depth of 12 yards last season. Audric Estime had nearly 1,000 yards rushing last season while Jayden Thomas caught nearly 96% of On-Target passes.

Army’s Ay’Juan Marshall is moving from RB to WR and is an explosive playmaker wherever he lines up. Isaiah Alston is a big play threat in his own right with an Avg Depth of Target of over 16 yards, and Joshua Lingenfelter was one of the best blocking TEs in the country last season, earning the most Blocking Total Points among FBS TEs.

Notre Dame’s offensive line is stacked with Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, and Zeke Correll making the team. Alt had the 2nd-most Total Points among FBS tackles last season while Fisher and Correll were impact blockers in both the passing and running games. Connor Finucane was 2nd among FBS guards last season in Run Blocking Total Points, and Christian Haynes is getting NFL buzz after posting a 0.3% Pass Blocking Blown Block Rate last season.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Rylie Mills	Notre Dame
DT	Billy Wooden	UMass
EDGE	Pryce Yates	UConn
EDGE	Eric Watts	UConn
LB	Leo Lowin	Army
LB	Jackson Mitchell	UConn
CB	Benjamin Morrison	Notre Dame
CB	Jabari Moore	Army
S	Malik Dixon-Williams	UConn
S	Quindrelin Hammonds	Army
FLEX	Jordan Mahoney	UMass

Rylie Mills is an interior disruptor, generating over 50% of his pressures when aligned as a DT. The UMass defense earns two selections with Billy Wooden and Jordan Mahoney. Wooden had nearly a 13% Pressure Rate when lined up as a DT, which was Top-15 in the FBS last season, and Mahoney earned a place with his effectiveness in coverage and underrated run defense abilities. The two EDGE spots go to UConn defenders Pryce Yates and Eric Watts as Yates had an Average Depth of Tackle of 0, and Watts generated 37 Pressures last season.

Leo Lowin was all over the field and showed his value in coverage. Jackson Mitchell is a stat-sheet stuffer who led the FBS in fumble recoveries with 5. As only a true freshman last season, Benjamin Morrison was a lockdown CB. When targeted, Morrison had a QBR Against of just 18.3. Jabari Moore is a leader of a tough Army defense, and his numbers per-snap are even more impressive. Malik Dixon-Williams and Quindrelin Hammonds earned their spots in very different ways as Dixon-Williams had impressive numbers against the pass (a Bust% of almost 40%), while Hammonds had impressive numbers against the run.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Noe Ruelas	UConn
P	George Caratan	UConn
Returner	Greg Desrosiers Jr.	UMass

Noe Ruelas was an effective kicker last season, and his long of 54 shows his impressive leg strength. George Caratan showed incredible control last season, pinning 19 punts inside of the 20 with only 1 touchback. Greg Desrosiers Jr. had nearly 600 kickoff return yards last season, including 3 separate games with 100+ KOR yards.

July 24, 2023

Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

Photo: Ian Johnson and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Patrick Mahomes	1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Joe Burrow	2. Justin Herbert
3. Josh Allen	3. Josh Allen
4. Jalen Hurts	4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Justin Herbert	5. Jalen Hurts
6. Trevor Lawrence	6. Joe Burrow
7. Aaron Rodgers	7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. Lamar Jackson	8. Dak Prescott
9. Dak Prescott	9. Kirk Cousins
10. Russell Wilson	10. Derek Carr

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s per-snap performance in Total Points, with their most recent season having a weight of 3, the second-most recent having a weight of 2, and their third-most recent having a weight of 1.

Total Points arguably evaluates quarterback performance better than any other position, if only because there is an abundance of data points related to quarterback play that factor into it.

Matt and Bryce initially thought to blend it with a second weighted EPA model that incorporated variables like Expected On-Target +/- (xOnTgt+/-) and throw depth, but concerns about historical sample with respect to xOnTgt+/- ultimately led them to decide that keeping it simple was best.

It should also be noted that this methodology was not limited to Passing Total Points; Rushing Total Points is equally factored in, and that is reflected in the placement of players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both of whom have been extremely productive on the ground.

What the Stats Showed

As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

“In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.”

After a clear tier break, Herbert and Allen rounded out the top three, being the two of the remaining three players on the list to have ranked in the top 10 in Passing Total Points/play each of the last two years. (Herbert ranked 6th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively; with Allen ranking 10th and 8th.)

Allen’s rushing also proved to be a windfall for him, with Bryce pointing out that, in 2022, the Bills generated 11 EPA on running plays, with Allen himself accounting for 33 rushing EPA.

Dak Prescott also ranked in the Top 10 in Passing Points/snap each of the past two years, but missed most of 2020 with an injury. Another player whose 2020 hurt them a bit in the stats ranking was Joe Burrow, whose ill-fated rookie season dampened his placement, despite performing well each of the past two years.

Following Burrow was Tua Tagovailoa, whose extremely efficient Year 3 with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was enough to propel him into the Top 10, despite not ranking in the Top 20 in Passing Total Points in either of his first two seasons in the league.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list likewise featured Patrick Mahomes at No. 1 and Josh Allen at No. 3, but Alex and James opted to place Burrow second rather than Herbert.

Their reasoning?

“Burrow just has that ‘It’ factor and has produced more results at this point than Herbert,” James said, “He went into Kansas City and beat Patrick Mahomes, which is something Herbert hasn’t done yet, and there’s something to be said for that.”

After that, there was a tier break with Jalen Hurts and the aforementioned Herbert placed at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. The scouts expressed a bit of apprehension about Hurts simply because the Philadelphia offense was an extremely good fit for him last year, but still asserted that his leadership, his running ability, and his deep ball are reasons to be optimistic about him moving forward.

The scouts also included Trevor Lawrence (No. 6), Lamar Jackson (No. 8), and Russell Wilson (No. 10) in their list, despite all of them having bad statistical years at some point within the last three seasons. James was bullish on Lawrence’s prospects moving forward, citing his arm talent, his mobility, and his command of the offense in Year 2 as very positive signs. Jackson was given the benefit of the doubt with respect to his injuries and the supporting cast around him the last few seasons, and Wilson likewise got a pass for a dysfunctional first year in Denver, but the scouts did note that he’s likely past his prime.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 21, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Sun Belt All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Grayson McCall	Coastal Carolina
RB	Frank Gore Jr.	Southern Miss
WR	Caulin Lacy	South Alabama
WR	Tyrone Howell	UL-Monroe
TE	Clayton Ollendieck	Troy
FLEX	La’Damian Webb	South Alabama
OT	Nick Kidwell	James Mdison
OT	Grant Betts	Troy
OG	Khalil Crowder	Georgia Southern
OG	Bucky Williams	Appalachian State
OC	Bryce Ramsey	Southern Miss

Grayson McCall has been a dominant force in the Sun Belt as he has led the conference in both passing total points and overall total points the last 3 seasons and will look to stay on top this season.

Frank Gore Jr. is the top RB in the conference as his 38 Total Points and his Broken + Missed Tackle % of 32% were both Top-20 in the nation.

La’Damian Webb isn’t too far behind as his 29 Total Points were good enough to crack the Top-25 in the country and his 13 rushing TDs last season were good for 2nd in the conference last season.

Webb’s teammate Caullin Lacy’s On-Target Catch% of 92.5% was good for third in the conference for receivers with a minimum of 75 targets. Tyrone Howell led all receivers in the conference with a minimum of 75 targets with 0.4 Broken & Missed tackles per Reception.

Khalil Crowder had a Blown Block% of 0.9 in almost 1000 snaps and was second last season in Total points for all OL in the conference with 39. Bucky Williams led all OL with a 0.5% Blown Block rate (with a minimum of 500 snaps ).

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	James Carpenter	James Madison
DT	Ja’Quon Griffin	Coastal Carolina
EDGE	Owen Porter	Marshall
EDGE	T.J. Jackson	Troy
LB	Eli Neal	Marshall
LB	Taurus Jones	James Madison
CB	Reddy Steward	Troy
CB	Micah Abraham	Marshall
S	Jay Stanley	Southern Miss
S	Yam Banks	South Alabama
FLEX	O’shai Fletcher	Troy

T.J. Jackson was second team All-SIS last season and a big reason was his 41 total points. He is joined by fellow Troy teammate and All-SIS 2nd teamer from last year, Reddy Steward. His 55 Coverage Total Points was good for 4th in the country last season. James Carpenter led all front 7 players with 28 Total Points against the run.

Marshall is well represented on the defensive side having 1 representative on each level of the defense. Owen Porter was top-25 in the nation last season with 9.5 sacks and his 27 total points from pass rushing led the conference for front 7 players. Eli Neal was 2nd among LBs in the conference with 24 Total Points against the run. Micah Abraham was 3rd in the conference with 38 Coverage Total Points. Abraham was also tied with South Alabama’s Yam Banks for the conference lead with 6 INTs. Both players tied for 2nd in the nation last season.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Dominic Zvada	Arkansas State
P	Ethan Duane	Old Dominion
Returner	Milan Tucker	Appalachian State

Dominic Zvada went nearly perfect last season going 17-of-18 on FGs and 30-of-31 on XPs. Ethan Duane led the conference with 28 punts inside the 20 and was tied for 3rd in the conference with 10 of them landing inside the 10 yard line. Milan Tucker was 2nd in the conference with 616 KR yards and returned 1 for a TD.

July 20, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason SEC All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Jayden Daniels	LSU
RB	Quinshon Judkins	Ole Miss
WR	Malik Nabers	LSU
WR	Ladd McConkey	Georgia
TE	Brock Bowers	Georgia
FLEX	Raheim Sanders	Arkansas
OT	Will Campbell	LSU
OT	Gunner Britton	Auburn
OG	Cam’ron Johnson	Missouri
OG	Tate Ratledge	Georgia
OC	Sedrick Van Pran	Georgia

LSU’s Jayden Daniels headlines the offensive team returning as the SEC QB selection from the 2022 season. He returns as the conference’s second leading quarterback in passing Total Points at 106. Additionally, last year he was the conference’s leading rusher amongst all positions with 71 Total Points which was 25 more than the next closest player.

That player was Ole Miss’ Quinshon Judkins. Judkins is our selection at the RB spot where he is looking to add onto his spectacular freshman season, leading all conference running backs in Total Points. The third leading rusher in Total Points was Arkansas’ Raheim Sanders who earned a spot at the “Flex” position.

The two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs lead the way with four selections on the offensive side of the ball, with Tight End Brock Bowers leading the way. His 32 Total Points in 2022 led the conference among all eligible positions and was only 2nd in the entire FBS in Total Points at tight end. Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran also fortifies the OL group, where his 36 Total Points in 2022 led the conference among returning interior lineman.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Mekhi Wingo	LSU
DT	Jordan Jefferson	LSU
EDGE	Harold Perkins	LSU
EDGE	Dallas Turner	Alabama
LB	Nathaniel Watson	Mississippi State
LB	Smael Mondon Jr.	Georgia
CB	Dwight McGlothern	Arkansas
CB	Kool-Aid McKinstry	Alabama
S	Jordan Lovett	Kentucky
S	Malaki Starks	Georgia
FLEX	Kris Abrams-Draine	Missouri

LSU also headlines the defensive side of the ball occupying three of the four defensive front selections. Mekhi Wingo returns as the conference’s leading defensive tackle in pass rush Total Points Saved and was only second to Top 10 NFL selection Jalen Carter in points saved in run defense. Harold Perkins also looks to build onto his dominant freshman season where he totaled 7.5 sacks and leads the SEC in returning Pass Rush Points Saved among all front seven players.

Arkansas’ Dwight McGlothern and Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry lead the way in returning Total Points saved amongst cornerbacks in the SEC from last season with 52 and 51 Total Points Saved respectively. The conference’s third leading defensive back with 47 Total Points Saved, Kris Abrams-Draine represents the “Flex” position out Missouri where he shined in just his second season at cornerback after switching positions (he was originally a wide receiver).

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Will Reichard	Alabama
P	Kai Kroeger	South Carolina
Returner	Lideatrick Griffin	Mississippi State

Alabama’s Will Reichard made 84.6% of his 26 FG attempts in 2022 making 9 FG of 40+ yards. South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger led the SEC last season in net avg among all punters while also leading the conference in punts that were downed inside the 20- and 10-yard line.

July 17, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Interior Offensive Linemen

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s head into the trenches and break down the ‘Best Interior Offensive Linemen in the NFL’ Top 10 lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Zack Martin	1. Jason Kelce
2. Jason Kelce	2. Kevin Zeitler
3. Creed Humphrey	3. Joel Bitonio
4. Quenton Nelson	4. Isaac Seumalo
5. Joel Bitonio	5. Zack Martin
6. Erik McCoy	6. Tyler Linderbaum
7. Joe Thuney	7. Joe Thuney
8. Brandon Scherff	8. Jon Runyan Jr.
9. Corey Linsley	9. Ben Powers
10. Frank Ragnow	10. Creed Humphrey

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

- 25% Pass Blocking Total Points
- 20% Run Blocking Total Points
- 10% Pass Blown Block Rate
- 10% Run Blown Block Rate
- 10% Holding penalty avoidance

5% Positional versatility

Total Points does as good a job of evaluating offensive line play as anything in our arsenal, so we leveraged that most, leaning a bit more into pass blocking than run blocking. These are both season totals, so to give more credit to play-to-play effectiveness we added in blown block rates as well.

Total Points doesn’t account for penalties (yet), so we wanted to ascribe some value to avoiding holding penalties. Typically linemen aren’t being called for these more than a few times a year, but they’re absolute drive killers.

And lastly, we wanted to give players credit for playing multiple positions. Most of the top players aren’t moving around because they’re so good at their primary position, but being able to provide support at multiple alignments is absolutely a valuable aspect of a player.

What the Stats Showed

The top three players on the stats list have two things in common: they are strong in both the pass game and run game, but they’re better as run blockers. That’s a bit surprising because the passing game was weighted more strongly in the metric the stats group used.

Each of Eagles C Jason Kelce, Ravens G Kevin Zeitler, and Browns G Joel Bitonio ranked in the top 15 in both Pass Blocking and Run Blocking Total Points (out of over 200 candidates), but all of their Run Blocking Total Points ranks were the higher of the two. Kelce separated himself by ranking in the top 20 in blown block rate both passing and running, which no one else could claim.

One feature that contributed to Kelce’s Total Points ranking (and is somewhat relevant for other players on the list) is that it’s difficult to disentangle responsibility for quarterback designed runs, particularly sneaks. With how much the Eagles leaned into the sneak in 2022, there are a lot of high-value plays for which Kelce is getting some Total Points credit.

Almost every player outside the top few was a good bit more productive at one type of blocking than the other. Cowboys G Zack Martin (No. 5) and Chiefs G Joe Thuney (No. 7) were the notable exceptions, ranking in the top 25 in each, but down years by their standards in 2022 dropped them down the list.

First-year Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum cracked the list at No. 6, thanks to excellent production in the run game. He ranked second in the Run Blocking Total Points category, and 12th in run blown block rate. It’s worth noting that he does have the quarterback-run caveat that affects Kelce (and former teammate Isaac Seumalo, now of the Steelers), but he was a top pick who was expected to deliver “out of the box”, so to speak, so this isn’t surprising.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list was chalky at the very top, featuring two perennial All-Pros in Martin and Kelce. A slightly less chalky No. 3 ranking went to Chiefs C Creed Humphrey.

The Chiefs are the only team to have two players on the list for both groups, with Humphrey showing up higher on the scouts’ list but below Joe Thuney on the stats list. Humphrey came in and helped transform the Kansas City line in 2021, and has done so with a difficult role, being asked to reach block and sometimes take on interior pass rushers 1-on-1.

Arguably the biggest discrepancy between the lists came with Colts G Quenton Nelson coming in at No. 4.

Per Matt, “when [Nelson’s] at his best, he’s just an absolute mauler, somebody who can move defensive tackles off the ball in the duo game when you have double teams on the inside.” Nelson helped make the Indy offensive line what it was the last few years, but a down year in 2022 did give some pause as to where he’d rank.

No. 6 ranked Erik McCoy (Saints C) plays with control and power, with exceptional processing ability in the passing game. Bryce would easily rank him a top-three center, while Matt has concerns about his skill in the run game and his ability to stay on the field consistently. The stats back that up to some extent, as he ranked in the Top 10 in avoiding blown blocks in the passing game and in the 60s in the run game.

Matt and Bryce each advocated for Chargers C Corey Linsley and Lions C Frank Ragnow to make the list at Nos. 9 and 10, respectively. They actually ranked first and second in three-year pass blown block rate, but other factors took them out of the Top 10 on the stats-based list.

Matt contends that the Chargers did well to build “inside-out” by bringing in Linsley to play center a couple years ago, taking pressure off their guards. Bryce notes that Ragnow allows the Lions to “do a lot of wacky stuff” with the complexity in their run game, and his intelligence allows him to pick up pass rush games on the interior.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 13, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Pac-12 All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Caleb Williams	USC
RB	Bucky Irving	Oregon
RB	Carson Steele	UCLA
WR	Dorian Singer	USC
WR	Rome Odunze	Washington
TE	Terrance Ferguson	Oregon
OT	Roger Rosengarten	Washington
OT	Taliese Fuaga	Oregon State
OG	Justin Dedich	USC
OG	Keaton Bills	Utah
OC	Duke Clemens	UCLA

One of the easiest choices on any all-conference team is reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams who led the FBS in Total Points last season. Oregon’s Bucky Irving showed his elusiveness last season leading the Pac 12 in Broken Tackle +Missed Tackle% at 35%. Dorian Singer and Rome Odunze are each coming off 1,000-yard seasons and ranked 1st and 2nd respectively last season in Receiving Total Points in the Pac-12. Terrance Ferguson has an under-the-radar season, but led Pac-12 tight ends last season in Receiver Rating (minimum 25 targets). The final skill position spot was hotly contested, but Ball State transfer Carson Steele got the nod after leading the country in rushing yards after contact last season.

The offensive line is very balanced, representing 5 different schools. Both tackles, Roger Rosengarten and Taliese Fuaga, finished T-2nd among Pac-12 tackles last season in Blown Block Rate, coming in at 1.4%. Justin Dedich and Keaton Bills are 1st and 2nd respectively among returning Pac-12 guards in Blocking Total Points. Rounding out our offensive line is Duke Clemens who finished 3rd in the Pac-12 in Run Blocking Points above average last season.

In a league of explosive offenses, there were some tough decisions, and it’s worth mentioning a few players who just missed the cut, but could find themselves on the 1st team postseason. Troy Fautanu, Josh Baker, Jacob Cowing, and Brant Kuithe are all expected to have big seasons in 2023.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	James Rawls	Oregon State
DT	Junior Tafuna	Utah
EDGE	Laiatu Latu	UCLA
EDGE	Bralen Trice	Washington
LB	Eric Gentry	USC
LB	Karene Reid	Utah
CB	Chau Smith-Wade	Washington State
CB	Nohl Williams	California
S	Cole Bishop	Utah
S	Calen Bullock	USC
S	Kitan Oladapo	Oregon State

James Rawls and Junior Tafuna show great balance along the defensive line as they are the only 2 returning Pac-12 defensive tackles to earn at least 12 Pass Defense Total Points and at least 12 Run Defense Total Points last season. The Pac-12 leader in pressures returns in Laiatu Latu as does the 3rd-place finisher Bralen Trice. The linebacker core includes a pair of linebackers who find multiple ways to leave their mark in the passing game. Eric Gentry and Karene Reid were 2 of just 6 Pac-12 defenders last season to achieve a 22% or higher Pressure Rate (minimum 10 pressures, 50 pass rushes), while both linebackers also recorded an interception as well.

The secondary is littered with playmakers including the Top-2 returning Pac-12 defenders in Coverage Total Points in Chau Smith-Wade and Calen Bullock. Cole Bishop was one of the most effective safeties in the country last season, finishing 5th in the FBS in Total Points in the group. Kitan Oladapo finished 2nd among Pac-12 safeties (behind fellow 1st-teamer Bullock) in Pass Coverage Total Points last season. Lastly, UNLV transfer Nohl Williams allowed a QB Rating Against of just 35.3 when targeted last season.

A couple of noteworthy mentions are Casey Rogers and Christian Roland-Wallace, who were both strongly considered for the all-conference team.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Joshua Karty	Stanford
P	Eddie Czaplicki	USC
Returner	Anthony Gould	Oregon State

Joshua Karty went a perfect 18-for-18 on field goals last season, including 3-for-3 on 50+ yarders. Eddie Czaplicki had an impressive average of 45.9 yards per punt with a long of 75. Our last specialist spot goes to Anthony Gould who was 1 of 5 FBS players with multiple punt return touchdowns last season.

July 13, 2023