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  • Citizens Bank Park is ideal for Bryce Harper’s power.

    by PATRICK ROWLEY

    Earlier this offseason, a number of writers were talking about how Bryce Harper’s vicious, left-handed swing was “made for Yankee Stadium,” making pinstripes a perfect fit for the young star who grew up a Yankees fan.

    That thought intrigued us, so we looked a bit deeper to see which ballpark would be an ideal fit.

    In 2018, Yankee Stadium ranked second in park factors for HRs as a LHB with a factor of 132, just behind Angels Stadium’s 134. Last season Harper pulled 42 percent of balls in play, not far from his career pull percentage of 39 percent, which looks perfect for a stadium in which the fence is 314 feet down the right field line (much to the ire of opposing teams).

    Digging a bit deeper into the splits shows that the frequency with which Harper pulls balls in play is skewed dramatically by his ground ball tendencies, pulling 62 percent of grounders to the right-third of the field However, on fly balls, Harper hit the ball the other way 50 percent of the time and pulled the ball just 16 percent.

    As park factors are better at showing league trends than individual performance, our R&D department then looked at every Bryce Harper fly ball over the last two seasons and calculated how many of the flies would have gone out at each park.

    We then divided by his total number of games played over the last two seasons and multiplied by 81 to bring it in to the context of a full season’s worth of games at the home park.

    A few caveats to this exercise: we were unable to incorporate factors such as wall height, atmosphere, and wind speed and direction in these calculations. To account for this, a five-foot cushion was incorporated into the calculation, giving the total he likely would have hit at each park.

    The results came out with Yankee Stadium as just the 10th best park for Harper to pick up a few extra homers on the season. Citizens Bank Park, on the other hand, was second with about 24 balls projected to go out. For context, the difference between Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park was 5.7 extra home runs at home over a season. 

    Conservatively rounding down, an extra five homers this season would have brought Harper’s total up to 39 (good for tied for 4th in baseball). Depending on what the original result of these batted balls were, Harper’s OPS would jump from .889 (16th) to anywhere between .908 (if all the added home runs were originally doubles) to .933 (if they were originally outs). Manny Machado, for those interested, had a .905 OPS this season, good for 11th.

    We’re not the only ones to feel confident about Harper’s home run performance. A study earlier this winter came to a similar conclusion.

    Also noteworthy is the lone park that came out ahead of Citizens Bank Park- Minute Maid Park in Houston. On November 10, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote an article about how Houston and Washington had a deal in place to move Harper ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline that was ultimately rejected by Nationals ownership. As we mentioned, we were not able to put these balls into context with wall height, so it’s fair to assume at least a few of these would end up as doubles or even long singles considering the 19-foot high wall in left field, but it’s fun to imagine how things could have shaken out differently if the Astros had Harper in the lineup in their title defense.

    With this said, the Astros were never concretely connected to the 26-year old superstar this offseason, whereas the Phillies had said they were willing to pay “stupid money” and appeared to be the most aggressive suitor in the Harper sweepstakes. This could be both the best available financial option for Bryce as well as the best statistical career option for him in the long run.

    Oh, and by the way, Harper doesn’t even come out as the biggest home run gainer using this system. New Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto comes out eight home runs ahead if we compare Citizens Bank Park to Marlins Park.

  • Who has been a better defender at third base: Arenado or Machado?

    With Manny Machado signing a 10-year contract with the Padres and Nolan Arenado inking an eight-year extension with the Rockies, the question comes to mind: Which one of them has been the better defensive third baseman?

    Machado is moving back to third base this season after playing most of 2018 at shortstop for the Orioles and Dodgers. He has saved 84 runs in just shy of 6,500 innings at third base, including 35 in 2013, the most in a season by any player since Defensive Run Saved (DRS) was first compiled in 2003.

    Machado’s career total amounts to 13 DRS per 1,000 innings.

    Arenado has saved 109 runs in a little less than 7,500 career innings. That comes out to 14.6 per 1,000 innings. It’s fair to say that Arenado has fared a little better over the course of his career, though not overwhelmingly so.

    The difference between Arenado and Machado is minimal when it comes to Range & Positioning. Both are good at turning balls hit down the line and “straight on” (the area where a third baseman typically plays) into outs. Arenado is a little better when it comes to balls hit in the shortstop-third base hole.

    But Arenado has accumulated a big edge in Runs Saved from Good Fielding Plays & Defensive Misplays. He has 14 for his career, compared to 1 for Machado.

    Good Fielding Plays & Misplays are charted by Video Scouts using criteria originally designed by Bill James and modified by BIS staff. They account for situations in which a player made an above-average effort to make a play, or in the case of Defensive Misplays, erring in a way that had a negative consequence.

    Examples of Good Fielding Plays include Web Gems such as the kind you would see on a highlight reel, but also things like preventing a single from being a double by cutting it off, or making a quick pivot to convert a double play. Misplays can be something like slipping, breaking in the wrong direction, or failing to hustle during a play.

    Here are some types of Good Plays & Misplays in which Arenado has some of his biggest advantages.

    Type of PlayArenado CareerMachado CareerArenado Advantage
    Cutting off a runner at home1263.8 runs
    Keeping the ball in the infield1452.9 runs
    Giving up on the play (misplay)172.5 runs
    Good force play1661.6 runs

    Arenado’s advantages come from one to two plays a year in each of these types. Sometimes little things can make all the difference.

  • Stat of the Week: Active players on Hall of Fame path

    With this year’s Hall of Fame class announced, here’s a look at which active players have cleared the bar of Bill James’ Hall of Fame Value Standard.

    As a reminder, a player’s Hall of Fame Value (HOF-V) is his Win Shares plus four times his Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The standard for Hall of Fame worthiness is a score of 500.

    Not surprisingly, Angels DH and first baseman Albert Pujols leads the way. With 477 Win Shares and 99.9 WAR, he’s at 876.6 on the HOF-V scale. That ranks 27th all-time, sandwiched between legends Mike Schmidt (894.2) and Carl Yastrzemski (873.6).

    Miguel Cabrera is also well above the HOF-V line at 670.6. A ruptured biceps limited Cabrera to 38 games last season, but his .316/.395/.551 career slash line and 465 home runs solidify his status among the game’s greats.

    Robinson Cano’s Hall of Fame candidacy was addressed in an earlier Stat of the Week . A PED-related suspension complicates his status, but his numbers (.304/.355/.493 with 311 home runs) easily clear the HOF-V threshold. He’s at 613.8, not far from Hall-of-Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg (618).

    Ichiro Suzuki says he wants to play in 2019, and for the purposes of this exercise, let’s presume he sees considerable time. By HOF-V, he’s Hall of Fame worthy at 561.2, just behind Hall of Famers Mike Piazza (562.4) and Vladimir Guerrero (561.6).

    Reds first baseman Joey Votto has a .311/.427/.530 slashline, in a 12-year career and has led the National League in on-base percentage seven times including each of the last three seasons. His Win Shares and WAR combination produces an HOF-V of 533.2, a little over the line for worthiness.

    Lastly, Mike Trout is only 27 years old and has played eight MLB seasons. But he’s already surpassed the HOF-V bar. He’s at 523.2, a remarkable total for a player of his age and experience. Trout has added at least 70 points to his HOF-V total in six of the last seven seasons. If he does so in the next two seasons, he’ll rank among the top 100 players in this stat (and having played 10 seasons, he will officially be Cooperstown eligible).

    If he averages 70 HOF-V over the next 10 seasons, he’ll be at 1,223.2, not far behind Willie Mays (1,267.6) for fifth all-time.

    Yadier Molina (499.9) is as close as you can come to reaching the bar. He should clear the threshold almost immediately, presuming no injuries or major performance issues.

    You might have noticed that there are no active pitchers on this list. The pitcher who is closest to a 500 HOF-V is Yankees starter CC Sabathia(489.8). Sabathia has averaged 21.6 HOF-V the last three seasons, so he’s got a good chance to surpass the 500 mark in 2019. Likewise,Justin Verlander (467.6) should clear 500 so long as he pitches at the level he did in each of the last three seasons, in which he averaged an HOF-V of 45.5.

    Perhaps surprisingly Zack Greinke (465.8) is in a similar spot. Another season matching his 2018 campaign (17 Win Shares, 4.8 WAR, 36.2 HOF-V) would push him over the line.

    For those wondering about Clayton Kershaw (444.4) and Max Scherzer (387), public perception may differ from this form of statistical analysis. Both still have a little way to go. Kershaw has been hurt by injuries the last three seasons that have limited his innings. Scherzer didn’t reach a level of consistent excellence until his sixth MLB season, so he still has some ground to make up.

    Three players retired in 2018 who surpassed 500 on the HOF-V scale.Adrian Beltre (755.8), Joe Mauer (631.7), and Chase Utley (552.6) and will all have their names come for discussion in five years. By the measure of this stat, they are Hall Of Fame worthy.

    If you want to check where your favorite player stands in the Hall of Fame Value Standard, go to Bill James Online. If you would like to read more about the Hall of Fame Value Standard, purchase the 2019 Bill James Handbook or visit the SIS Blog.

    Active Leaders in HOF-V
    NameHOF-V
    Albert Pujols876.6
    Miguel Cabrera670.6
    Robinson Cano613.8
    Ichiro Suzuki561.2
    Joey Votto533.2
    Mike Trout523.2
    Yadier Molina499.9
    CC Sabathia489.8
    Ian Kinsler475.2
    Justin Verlander467.6
    Zack Greinke465.8

  • Stat of the Week: Hall of Fame Value Standard Part II

    Last week’s Stat of the Week looked at Bill James’ newest creation, the Hall of Fame Value Standard (HOF-V), and how it analyzes the worthiness of some of the debatable position player candidates on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot. To supplement that, here’s a look at the pitcher candidates of a similar debatable status.

    As a reminder, HOF-V is calculated by adding a player’s Win Shares and four times their Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR). A score of 500 is considered to be the standard for Hall of Fame worthiness.

    Mike Mussina has the highest HOF-V score of any pitcher on the ballot not named Roger Clemens (who would be a certain Hall-of-Famer if not for PED allegations against him). Mussina’s HOF-V of 601.6 is higher than those of fellow former Orioles ace Jim Palmer (587.6) and a contemporary Hall-of-Famer, John Smoltz (565.0).

    Curt Schilling is a notch below Mussina statistically, with 252 Win Shares and 79.6 WAR (to Mussina’s 270 and 82.9). Schilling crosses the threshold with an HOF-V of 570.4, and that’s without even counting his postseason numbers (2.23 ERA in 133 1/3 innings).

    Roy Halladay is polling very well among Hall of Fame voters, indicating that his election is likely. By the HOF-V, he comes up a little short at 479.2. James’ assessment is that the system looks at overall numbers rather than peak performance, and that penalizes Halladay enough to bring him below the line. There are Hall-of-Fame pitchers with an HOF-V below 500 — among them is ex-Yankees ace Whitey Ford (488.6) — so Halladay wouldn’t be alone in that regard. James acknowledged he would vote for Halladay if he had a vote.

    Andy Pettitte is also below the HOF-V line at 465.2, as he was deemed to have had a number of very good years, but not enough great years to add up to Hall of Fame status.

    The system has imperfections when it comes to evaluating relief pitching. Both
    Mariano Rivera (497.8) and Billy Wagner (292.8) come in below the HOF-V bar. Rivera is widely considered to be the best relief pitcher of all-time. Wagner posted incredible numbers in strikeouts and saves.

    But as James wrote in the
    2019 Bill James Handbook, WAR and Win Shares don’t produce a number that represents a closer’s true value.

    “Although MLB field staff don’t think in those terms, they act as if they believe that the Leverage Index for a closer is about four to five … Win Shares and WAR both use Leverage Indexes for closers around 2.00. Let’s say Billy Wagner works 70 innings a year. With a Leverage Index of 2.00 his impact is more as it would be if he was pitching 140 innings a year at the same level of effectiveness … Wagner appears to have much less impact on his team than a good starting pitcher … But is this fair to Billy Wagner? … Wagner’s value is in essence kept in a cage because other people are acting on false assumptions. It’s not his fault. His value doesn’t reflect his performance level.”

    If you want to check where your favorite player stands in the Hall of Fame Value Standard, go to
    Bill James Online. If you would like to read more about the Hall of Fame Value Standard, purchase the 2019 Bill James Handbook or visit the SIS Blog. The BBWAA will announce the newest inductees on January 22. Happy debating!

    2019 HOF Eligible Pitchers
    Roger Clemens 995.4
    Mike Mussina 601.6
    Curt Schilling 570.4
    Mariano Rivera 497.8
    Roy Halladay 479.2
    Andy Pettitte 465.2
    Roy Oswalt 372.4
    Derek Lowe 311.6
    Billy Wagner 292.8
    Freddy Garcia 275.6
    Ted Lilly 220.4
    Jon Garland 209
    Darren Oliver 207.8

  • Larry Walker meets the Hall of Fame standard

    Larry Walker is a high-end Hall of Fame candidate. But not everyone seems to have figured that out yet.

    This year, Bill James introduced a new Hall of Fame Value Standard in the 2019 Baseball Handbook (excerpted here). The methodology combines James’ Win Shares metric with four times Wins Above Replacement into one number. The cutoff score for Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    Walker clears the bar with plenty of room to spare, at 599.4. That puts him right in line with Hall-of-Famer Andre Dawson (599.2) and places him just outside the top 100 in that stat all-time. He’s higher than Edgar Martinez by about 20 points, though Walker’s vote total is not close to Martinez’s.

    Walker is hindered by a perception that his numbers were inflated by playing regularly in Coors Field for much of his career. From 1995 to 2002, he slashed .341/.425/.636, averaging 30 home runs and 124 games per season. By the Jamesian metric Offensive Winning Percentage, a team of nine Walkers at the plate (along with average pitching and defense) would have won nearly 75 percent of the time. That ranks 29th all-time.

    Walker did have a strong defensive reputation, though most of his seasons predate Defensive Runs Saved (which was devised in 2003). He did tally 10 DRS in 2003 and did well in the Total Zone Runs stat that is a predecessor to Defensive Runs Saved. Overall, he ranks eighth among right fielders in the Total Zone metric.

    Walker’s standing as Hall of Fame worthy may be slightly hindered by where he played, but in the end, it’s not debatable that he put up numbers that match up well among others who have been enshrined.

  • Fred McGriff has statistical support for Cooperstown

    Fred McGriff has statistical support for Cooperstown

    This article was originally published in December 2018

    Fred McGriff was a really good baseball player. But he’s yet to be recognized as belonging among the elite. McGriff is in his final year of eligibility on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. He received 22 percent support in his first year. He received 23 percent last year. He’s not close to the 75 percent needed for election. But perhaps he should be.

    This year, Bill James introduced a new Hall of Fame Value Standard in the 2019 Baseball Handbook (excerpted here). The methodology combines James’ Win Shares metric with four times Wins Above Replacement into one number. The cutoff score for Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    McGriff is there. His 552.6 cleared the bar by a little bit. He’s right alongside another player who will be a tough Hall of Fame choice in a few years, recently retired Chase Utley (552.5). James ranks McGriff 19th on the list of those who are Hall of Fame worthy who aren’t special cases (like players with PED histories)

    McGriff finished his career with a slashline of .284/.377/.509, 2,490 hits, and 493 home runs. He didn’t slug like Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa, but he didn’t have to do that to be an effective player. He finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six times. He also was great in the postseason, hitting .303/.385/.532 with 10 home runs and 37 RBI in 50 games.

    What should solidify McGriff’s argument is this. James also devised a metric known as Similarity Scores, to illustrate how similar one player is to another. The two players rated as most similar to McGriff are Hall-of-Famers Willie McCovey and Willie Stargell.

    McGriff almost surely isn’t making the Hall of Fame this time around. Instead, he’ll likely be forced to wait and hope that someone carries the torch for his candidacy. There are plenty of good reasons to do so.

  • For Edgar Martínez, voters are catching up to HOF worthiness

    This should be the year that Mariners third baseman Edgar Martinez makes the Baseball Hall of Fame.

    It’s fair to call this an overdue honor for Martinez, who is in his 10th and final year on the Hall of Fame ballot. Martinez’s vote total has jumped significantly, from 27 percent in 2015 to 70 percent last year (75 percent is needed for election).

    This year, Bill James introduced a new Hall of Fame Value Standard in the 2019 Baseball Handbook (excerpted here). The methodology combines James’ Win Shares metric with four times Wins Above Replacement into one number. The cutoff score for Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    Martinez clears the bar with a score of 578.7. That’s higher than already- elected Hall of Famers Mike Piazza (562.2) and Vladimir Guerrero (561.8). among others. In all, it ranks 139th all-time, which puts him in the top one percent of players all-time, with a little room to spare. James ranked Martinez as the 12th-most deserving position player that is not in the Hall of Fame (excluding special cases, such as those players with PED histories).

    If we may leave you with a stat to remember on Martinez, one you might have forgotten about, let’s look at another James’ creation: Offensive Winning Percentage.

    Offensive Winning Percentage estimates how a team would do if it were comprised of nine batters with the batting line of a given player. It assumes average defensive and pitching performance. An average offensive player would have a .500 offensive winning percentage)

    The elite players in this stat are the best players of all-time. Babe Ruth (.858) and Ted Williams (.857) rank 1-2. Mike Trout is the top active player at .793. The all-time leaders can be found here.

    Martinez represents extremely well here. He’s 59th all-time with a .712 offensive winning percentage. That’s higher than many notable players, including (perhaps surprisingly) Miguel Cabrera, who is tied for 60th at .710 and Albert Pujols, who is 82nd at .696. Martinez’s excellence here can be explained by his batting line. He’s one of 14 players in MLB history with a batting line of at least .310/.410/.510.

    The stats more than make their case for Martinez to be a Hall of Famer. We’ll see if the voters come through for him this time around.

  • Hall of Fame Value Standard shows Mike Mussina’s worthiness

    The Baseball Hall of Fame voters are slowly but surely supporting Mike Mussina’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Mussina isn’t quite there yet, though statistically there’s not much doubt that he belongs.

    This year, Bill James introduced a new Hall of Fame Value Standard in the 2019 Baseball Handbook (excerpted here). The methodology combines James’ Win Shares metric with four times Wins Above Replacement into one number. The cutoff score for Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    Mussina clears the bar and then some. He’s at 601.8. That’s better than Hall of Fame pitchers Jim Palmer (587.7), Don Sutton (587.1), and John Smoltz (565.2) among others. Mussina is that high because of consistent excellence. Some say he didn’t dominate like a Roger Clemens or a Pedro Martinez. That’s a poor way to judge Mussina’s performance.

    Here’s a better way:

    James once devised something known as the Gray Ink Test, which rewards pitchers for finishing in the top 10 in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, winning percentage, saves, complete games, walks per 9 innings, hits per 9 innings, starts, and shutouts. Each stat is assigned a point value, with wins, ERA, and strikeouts being the most valuable. The stat is actually tougher on contemporary players like Mussina, because they played (and are still playing) in 14-to-16 team leagues and thus have more competition than those players who played pre-expansion.

    Mussina scored 250 points by the Gray Ink test, which ranks tied for 21st among pitchers. Of the top 35 pitchers in this stat, 31 are in the Baseball Hall of Fame, with Mussina, Clemens, and two pitchers from the 19th century (Jim McCormick and Bobby Mathews) being the exceptions.

    Mussina may not have been the best pitcher of his generation. But he certainly was among the best. The numbers indicate he deserves a spot in Cooperstown.

  • Job Opening: Minor League Video Editor Internships

    Sports Info Solutions: 2019 Minor League Video Editing Internship

    Sports Info Solutions, originally founded as Baseball Info Solutions, is looking for highly motivated individuals with a desire to work in the baseball industry. In a new position for the 2019 season, SIS is looking for Minor League Video Editors, who will watch and clip video from Minor League games while validating the accuracy of pitch by pitch information. The end result of each Video Editor’s work will allow professional teams and other SIS clients to conduct advanced player and team analysis, specifically relating to advanced scouting and player development. Video Editors will have the opportunity to watch thousands of players across multiple levels of Minor League baseball, while also learning the ins and outs of the baseball statistics industry.

     

    Former SIS interns have risen rapidly through Major League front offices after getting their start watching two to three games per day at SIS. In the words of one former intern and current Vice President of Baseball Operations, “My summer at [BIS] was the best baseball experience of my life.” Major League teams frequently come to us for recommendations when they need to fill a position within their organization, and our top interns each year routinely land team internships and/or full-time jobs.

    We take pride in making our internships great development opportunities for those looking to get their start in baseball. In addition to gaining invaluable experience watching thousands of players across different levels, we offer introductory classes that cover writing scouting reports and using the database management language, SQL. We also provide insight and advice from previous SIS interns who have branched out into a variety of areas in the sports industry.

    Responsibilities:
    • During overnight shifts, edit video from Minor League games, properly marking in and out points for each pitch, ensuring all meaningful action is captured
    • Validate the accuracy of Minor League pitch by pitch data
    • Assist with the production of the 2020 Bill James Handbook
    • Provide administrative support to the full-time staff
    Time Frame:
    • The start date for this position is March 11th, 2019. This position will through the end of the Minor League season, with the last day of employment being Monday, September 2nd, 2019 (Labor Day)
    • This position will require relocation to Coplay, Pennsylvania; working remotely is not an option at this time
    Compensation:
    • A starting hourly rate of $8.00 and/or college course credit will be offered
    We are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.
    To apply, click here

  • By the numbers, Scott Rolen is Hall-of-Fame worthy

    Third baseman Scott Rolen received 10 percent of the vote his first time on the Hall of Fame ballot. The numbers indicate he deserves better when the results are announced on January. 22.

    This year, Bill James introduced a new Hall of Fame Value Standard in the 2019 Baseball Handbook (excerpted here). The methodology combines James’ Win Shares metric with four times Wins Above Replacement into one number. The cutoff score for Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    Rolen clears the bar with a score of 584.7. That’s not quite Chipper Jones (756.8) or Adrián Beltré territory (755.9), but it’s enough to be deemed induction worthy. Rolen’s total is higher than another player hoping for induction, Edgar Martínez.

    Martínez received 70 percent of the vote last year. As noted above, Rolen wasn’t close to that.  Rolen, like Martínez, also rates better in the Hall-of-Fame Value Standard than a couple of his contemporaries, recently-elected Hall-of-Famers Mike Piazza (562.2) and Vladimir Guerrero (561.8).

    There are a couple of things working against Rolen. One is that the Hall of Fame has historically been tough on third basemen. There have been only 17 enshrined, the fewest of any position on the diamond (catcher ranks second with 18). The other is that injuries significantly limited his ability at the end of his career and thus his offensive numbers are not as gaudy as some of his contemporaries. They were still quite good — .281/.364/.490 with 316 home runs.

    But even playing through injuries, Rolen was a defensive superstar. He ranks second among third baseman in Defensive Runs Saved at the position, even though the stat has only been compiled since 2003 (and thus misses his first seven seasons). Rolen is also one of three third basemen to total 30 Defensive Runs Saved in a season, along with Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado. Rolen won eight Gold Glove Awards and made seven All-Star teams.

    In short, Rolen was probably better than you remember him. As James himself wrote:

    “Scott Rolen seems to be to have been a well-qualified Hall of Famer in every respect, a great offensive and defensive performer.”

    Hall of Fame Value Standard – Primary Position: 3B
    1. Mike Schmidt* 894.2
    2. Eddie Mathews* 836.6
    3. George Brett* 786.6
    4. Wade Boggs* 759.7
    5. Chipper Jones* 756.8
    6. Adrián Beltré 755.9
    7. Brooks Robinson* 669.6
    8. Ron Santo* 606.1
    9. Darrell Evans 599.7
    10. Graig Nettles 592.9
    11. Scott Rolen 584.7
    12. Buddy Bell 566.4
    * In Hall of Fame